Comparative Analysis Of Regional Development Differences In China Using Ecological Footprint Model Based On The Emergy Analysis Theory

To estimate the sustainable development status and changing tendency from2001to2010in the East, Central and Southwest China. The ecological footprint and ecological capacity of East (Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces), Central (Hunan and Henan Provinces) and Southwest (Guizhou and yunan Provinces) China in the past decade were analyzed by combining Emergy Analysis with the Ecological Footprint model. And predict the ecological footprint and ecological capacity from2011to2020by the gray forecasting model.The results are as following:①In study period,fluctuations of the per capita ecological capacity is relatively small, per capita ecological carrying capacity basic maintenance at the5.73-7.72hm2in the Southwest China’s.It showed a rapid upward trend of per capita ecological footprint in the three regions, the largest increase for the southwest region and the average annual growth rate of7.31%.②In the study area, ecological footprint contribution of fossil energy land, building land and grassland for regional ecological footprint is relatively large, And the faster growth of the ecological footprint of fossil energy land. Arable land, forest land and the waters of the relatively small proportion of the total ecological footprint,and the trend is basically stable.③In the East,Central and Southwest China,resource consumption has exceeded the carrying capacity level. Ecological deficit showed expanding tend. Human activities exceed the carrying capacity of the ecosystem, and the development of the region is unsustainable state, which the southwest ecological deficit growthfaster.④From the ecological overload point of view, the East China ecological overload most serious,And ecological overshoot index reached15after2003, followed by Central China, Southwest China are relatively mild degree of ecological overload.⑤It found that three regions per capita ecological carrying capacity show a downward trend from2011to2020by gray forecasting model.The ecological footprint are likely to increase in varying degrees, but the growth rate may have varying degrees of slowdown. Fossil energy land, building land and grassland ecological footprint is still important reasons to affect the regional ecological footprint. The three major areas of ecological deficit in varying degrees expand.Ecological deficit fastest growing of the Southwest China, followed in East China, Central China. The central China ecological overload Index increased rapidly will likely be the most serious areas of three regional ecological overload in2017.⑥Ecological deficit is influenced by the degree of regional development, population pressure, regional industrial structure. There is an important relationship with Socio-economic development and population expansion. Human activities has exceeded the supply capacity of the natural ecosystem. Differences in the level of development led to some areas of natural resource consumption advantage. Ecological deficit is impacted of the industrial structure,and population in the area close to the level of development.⑦With the improvement of economic, scientific and technological level, the regional development should be the simple pursuit of economic growth to the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of economic, social and ecological transformation. Only by fully considering the regional resources and environment carrying capacity, promote structural adjustment of industrial structure and energy consumption. At the same time, control population growth, optimize land use pattern, to raise public awareness of ecological and environmental protection, the establishment of a resource-saving economy and consumption system of social production, in order to achieve the sustainable development of the region.