Study On Regional Water Resources Crisis Generating And Its Risk Assessment

Water resources are the fundamental resources of social and economic development, and also is a controlling factor of ecological environment positive cycle. With the large growth of population and rapid acceleration of the urban process, adding to the exploiting and utilizing water resources immoderately, some water problems appeared: water resources shortage, water pollution and water eco-environment deteriorates, which impact sustainable development of economic, social and ecological. Due to the effect of human and nature, water resources crisis is related to the balance of water resources supply and demand, and more closely connected with society activities. Natural hydrologic cycle is disturbed by social hydrologic cycle what people influence, which making water resources system changing gradually, at last, evolve into water crisis. Therefore, system theory should be taken as a core study point, so that the produce of water resources crisis can be analyzed, for that, it can provide theory basis for water resources crisis risk assessment. At the same time, it makes guidance and policy to water resources crisis management.The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) water resources system is divided into water resources subsystem, social economy subsystem, environment subsystem and ecology subsystem. Water resources is the core of water resources system, its subsystems contact each other by both social hydrologic cycle and natural hydrologic cycle. (2) Regional water resources crisis generation is analyzed, then, a factor index system about water resources crisis risk is built. Base on the water resources system, every subsystem which needs water makes an effect with each other. When it cannot provide enough water amount and water quality to life, ecological, production, the object needing water is damaged. So, if one department is lack of water, it will impact on the other departments, making a series of chain reaction. (3) Analytic Hierarchy Process and Principal Component Analysis is applied to calculate water resources risk index weight. Water resources risk assessment index system is built, including, criterion layer, index layer three layers target strata of 27 index. The Comprehensive index will make the weights too subjective or too objective. (4) Set Pair Analysis is applied in risk assessment of Hebei Province water resources crisis. The risk division is made with MAPGIS software. In the end, some countermeasures are set out for water resources risk management.