Passenger Demand Analysis Of High-speed Rail In The Competition Among The Different Passengers Transportation Modes

As the rapid development of construction and operation of the PassengerDedicated Line (PDL), the competition among the different passenger transportationmodes become more and more intensive in the transport channel than the last.Meanwhile, with the rapid development of the national economy and people’s risingliving standards, people request higher standard about the travel service andtransportation environment. They require the transportation quality is not only safe,but also quick, convenient, comfort, economic and better service. Based onconsidering the various modes of transportation competition, it is necessary toanalyze high-speed rail passenger demand. Standing on this issue, it studies theinfluence of fares and speed changing to high-speed rail passenger demand in thevarious modes transport competitive conditions, and determines the best faresaccording to the change of transportation sharing rate.Firstly, this thesis introduces the background of high-speed rail, analyzes theresearch of passenger demand and fare game present situation from the internal andexternal, gives the content of the research; Secondly, it introduces the concept ofpassenger demand and analyzes the formation of passenger demand and theinfluencing factors. Combining with the operator situation of PDL, it analyzes thepassenger demand in our country. Then it systematically analyses influence the choiceof travel mode behavior factors from the technical and economic characteristics of thepassenger and passenger socio-economic characteristics, and quantifies passengertransportation’s economy, safety, rapidity, convenient and comfort property. Then itexpounds the mode split model and the limitations of Multinomial Logit model,introduces Nested Logit model. Lastly, taking Wuhan-Guangzhou PDL as a concretecase, it builds the layers of characteristic variables and utility function in the model,calibrates the relevant parameters, adjust the fare and speed to calculate passengerflow volume changes. And through PDL and airline fare game to determine the bestfares.