Research On The Intersection Risk Degree Model Based On Traffic Conflict Quantitative Analysis

Intersection is the node where the road users change their driving routes; it is the focus of traffic conflict and it easily lead to accidents. In order to improve the level of traffic safety of the intersection, we should first give it a safety evaluation. At present, in a variety of intersection safety evaluation methods in our country based on the traffic conflict technique, a majority use qualitative analysis and a minority use quantitative analysis. To this end, in the article, based on the quantitative analysis of the traffic conflict of mixed traffic flow in the intersection, we build the intersection risk degree model to evaluate the level of traffic safety of the intersection.Draw lessons from the existing research results, this article firstly systematically discussed the traffic conflict technique and the influence factors of intersection safety, analyzed the traffic characteristics of motor vehicle flow, bicycle flow, and pedestrian flow in the mixed traffic flow of intersection. By using the path chart, we analyse the number and distribution of the different types of conflict points in both signalized and non-signalized intersection.Secondly, by using the methods of probability theory, traffic flow theory and traffic conflict theory, this article establishes the quantitative computational model of the number of potential conflicts at both signalized and non-signalized intersection. Among them, the type of conflicts includes conflicts between motor vehicles and motor vehicles, conflicts between motor vehicles and non-motor vehicles, and conflicts between motor vehicle and pedestrian. And by analyzing and processing the actual observed traffic conflict data, we verify the feasibility and availability of the model. Then, through the establishment of the main and modified risk degree model of the intersection, we obtain the risk calculation model of the intersection. By using the method of quantitative calculations and the qualitative description, we divide the risk of the intersection into four grades.Finally, by taking a two-phase intersection around Beijing Jiaotong University as the research object, we verify the scientific and feasibility of the risk model of the intersection. Through the analysis of the calculation results of the risk, we propose the improvement measures of the traffic safety of the intersection. The research results show that the model can be applied to evaluate the traffic safety and it has an important guiding significance for improving the security situation of the intersection.