Research On Warning Of Flight Delays Based On Hub Airport

With the rapid development of Chinese economy and gradual improvement of people’sliving standards, more and more people choose airplanes as vehicles for travel. Meanwhile,flight delays are becoming a serious problem that has bothered civil aviation administrationand massive passengers. Since 2007, the rate of normal domestic flight is decreasing year byyear and a large scale of flight delays have occurred sometimes. If no effective measurestaken to passengers during flight-delays, particularly in domestic large hub airports,passengers will be in a state of chaos easily making conflicts with airports. What is worse, thenormal take-off of other aircraft may be interfered by desperate passengers. Though there aremany factors affecting flight delays and some of them cannot be avoided, but, at present, themanagement of domestic large hub airports to flight delays still remain in the routinemanagement and emergency management, there is no transition shift from conventionalmanagement model to the early warning management model.To solve this problem, the paper firstly defines the concepts of hub airports and flightdelays, and explains the effect of flight delays on hub airports in detail. On the basis of thesystematically expounded theory of early warning management, early warning management isintroduced into the management of hub airport flight delays, and the hub airport flight delays,early warning management principles, ideas, functions and management processes aredescribed in detail in the paper.Secondly, to analyze the whole process of flights, the factors which resulted in flightdelays was classified, by the principle of scientific, systematic, comparability, objectivity andtimeliness to determine air management, airport management, air traffic control, weather,passengers factor five-level evaluation indicators and 17 secondary evaluation work togetherto build a hub airport flight delays early warning indicator system.Thirdly, weight was given to the selected indicators. To determine the choice of indexweights, in order to compensate the lack of stability and the disadvantage of subjectivity forthe Analytic Hierarchy Process, the objective weighting coefficient of variation method isintroduced in the paper, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the coefficient of variationCombined method to give indicators weight can ensure the reliability and stability of theindex weight as much as possible.Finally, by the research of the gray comprehensive evaluation model, select a multi-level gray comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate comprehensively the hub airport flight delays, the model not only can be the final evaluation results, but also can calculate the correlation between the indicators and warning level. To simulate the flight delays that may occur within a certain period of time of a large hub airport, and verify the validity of the model.