Evaluation On The Scale Of Urban Rail Transit Network Based On Disaggregate Model

Nowadays with the rapid development of economy, the congestion of urban traffic is more and more serious. As the appearance and rapid development of urban rail transit, the traveling pressure of the urban road has been greatly eased, and provides the residents more diversity choice of transportation. Calculating and evaluating on the scale of existing urban rail transit network is closely linked with the city’s overall arrangement and long-term plan.This article researches from the following several aspects:First, introduces the concept of the scale of transit network, analyzes its main influence factors and their mechanism, then gets multi-layer hierarchical structure model.Second, summarizes the current calculation method (service level method, traffic demand analysis method, regression analysis method, and the attract scope geometry analysis) of the scale of transit network, analysis their advantages, disadvantages and applicable condition. Based on this, puts forward the concept of disaggregate.Third, systematically introduces the disaggregate model its basic theory, basic model and its current applications in traffic;Fourth, establish disaggregate model and calculate the share rate of traffic. As the investigation of the trip behavior is the foundation of analyzing the characteristic and regular pattern of residents travel behavior and modeling the disaggregate mode, this article analysis the influence factors of trip option from travel characteristics, travelers’ personal characteristics and traffic facilities and service level these three aspects. Choose representative of the factors:time and found as variables, apply the theory of disaggregate model and the survey data of residents travel ways in core zone of Chongqing area, establish the MNL model and get the share rate of traffic ways through calculation。At last, evaluate existing urban rail transit network scale in Chongqing by share rate of traffic ways. Evaluate the existed urban rail transit network scale.