Urban Rail Transit Corridor Share Rate Prediction Research

Urbanization in our country has developed rapidly in recent years,the urban population to increase as a result of traffic demand is difficult to meet,people's living standards continue to improve,private car ownership is also rising,which caused by the increasing traffic congestion problem.Urban rail transit due to its large capacity,convenient,quick characteristic makes it can largely alleviate urban road congestion,so the development of urban rail transit has become the development trend of the current our country city.Urban rail transit passenger flow forecast are essential to the early stage of the operation of urban rail transit construction and planning,the contents of the urban rail transit corridor on the way to share rate prediction research of urban rail passenger flow forecasting accuracy play a key role,at the same time of urban rail transit,the necessity of building played an important supporting role.This paper establishes comprehensive traffic network model and method based on disaggregate model are selected share rate prediction model of urban rail transit corridor way.First,this paper expounds the urban transportation corridor definition and function,and from two aspects: transportation and residents of analysis of the influence factors of residents' travel choice.Secondly,this paper expounds the comprehensive transportation network model,is proposed for urban rail corridor of super network modeling method,the determination of effective path principle,according to the characteristic improved the searching algorithm of shortest path of the corridor.Again,to determine the scope of coverage and cohesion of corridor,puts forward the super corridor apply network path calculation method of the generalized cost function,and the shortest path,introduce the traveler characteristics and travel characteristics.Contrast analysis of the traffic mode choice model to determine suitable for prediction of the share rate of the disaggregate model,using the MNL model is given more than the shortest path selection probability distribution to construct the share rate prediction model of urban rail transit corridor way.Finally,in Xining city as an example,through TransCAD software to build a comprehensive transportation network,in Xining city much plan the shortest path between computing area,on the basis of resident trip survey data,using SPSS software calibration MNL model parameters,then through the programming calculation of every path choice probability,Xining urban rail transit corridor on multiple sections of three main transportation,the share rate and the prediction results for the share rate of concrete analysis.