Research On The Disaggregate Model For Mode Split Of Rail Transit In The Urban Agglomeration And Its Application

With the rapid development of the urban agglomeration, the planning and construction of the intercity railway have become the urgent needs for developing the urban agglomeration fast, healthily and coordinately. The predication of railway passenger volume in urban agglomeration is the foundation of all the works to plan, design, construct and operate for the intercity railway, while the mode split of traffic is an important part in the four-steps predication of passenger flow. A reasonable, objective projection of the mode split can provide a scientific basis for policy-making to optimize the futuristic structure of transport, and also it is helpful to grip the transport capacity that might be emerged in the future on the overall. How to repartition the share of intercity railway that newly introduced in urban agglomeration is always the focal point, crux and hot spot in this field. From the perspective of described individual choice in disaggregate model, this paper makes a study of the investigation of residents travel behavior in urban agglomeration, the model of mode choice, algorithm and application examples, and makes a useful experiment of applying the disaggregate model to the model split of intercity railway in urban agglomeration.This thesis firstly reviews the state of the art of disaggregate mode theory, and summed up the basic idea of modeling, the classical model and evolution history of disaggregate mode systematically. The investigation of the trip behavior is the foundation of analyzing the characteristic and regular pattern of residents travel behavior and modeling the disaggregate mode. Dissertation presents the theory and main process of trip behavior RP and SP survey; taking the investigation of trip behavior in Changzhutan urban agglomeration for example, designs and implements the survey plan of regional trip behavior with orthogonal experimental design methods; according to the finding, the intercity and incity travelers were comparative analyzed on the social economy, purpose, mode split and time distribution. The analyzing results indicate that the differences between intercity and the incity trip are in evidence except in the most important consideration of mode split. Based on the different travel characteristics of intercity and incity in urban agglomeration and the different characters of intercity rapid railway, the passenger volume was divided to the intercity volume and incity one, then an new mode split method was put forward to forecast the two kinds of passenger volume. Based on the RP and SP data, this paper sets up the NL model for intercity and incity respectively in planning step; by introducing the ratio parameter, builds the RP/SP combined data model considering the random difference between RP model and SP model. In view of the calibration model, according to the basic operation method of TransCAD, this paper extracts and summarizes the practical algorithm for solving and applying the disaggregate model that has been set. On the ground of the survey data of residents travel in Changzhutan and relevant research and study material, this paper constructs the traffic mode split RP, SP, and RP/SP joint model in urban agglomeration, and analyses the result of model calibration; at the same time, makes an predication of the future share of the traffic mode using the above three models, gives a comparative analysis of the forecasted result at last. The result shows the logit model with combined RP/SP data can easily account for the scaling and unobserved error correlations and provides a more reasonable result.