Simulation Of The Evolution Of Vessel Traffic Flow At Coast Port Based On Cellular Automata

With the rapid increase of port throughout and more complex vessel traffic form, the inelasticity and mismatch between port and channel planning and design comes up. Therefore, it is essential to have a better accurate and reliable research on the vessel traffic flow evolution. However, the traditional methods are not suitable for the actual situation because of a plenty of construction factors and precise mathematic modeling. Hence, it is necessary to apply new technique and method like artificial intelligence technology in order to have a more reasonable intelligence and reliable traffic feature.This paper, establishing a fairway vessel traffic flow modeling based on cellular automata, sets up the vessel behavior feature and vessel arriving regularity with the consideration of ship’s classes, safety distance and port service level. Its main contents are as follows:(1) Analysis of the port service system characteristic and berth service level. Take Tianjin Port as an example, the port service system operation model based on the research of port service system operation process is constructed; furthermore, the influence of vessel arriving regularity and berth service level on vessel traffic flow at coast port is analyzed.(2) Determination of cell size, neighbor and rule. To establish the ship’s domains of different behaviors based on the ships’behavior characteristic and Fujii domain model, it sets up the cell size, neighbor and rule according the actual motion of ships, which should conform to the actual vessel traffic flow.(3) The construction of vessel traffic flow simulation model. Considering the port service system characteristic in accordance with the cell size, neighbor and rule that are determined, it constructs the vessel traffic flow simulation model based on the cellular automata, which should reflect the characteristics of harbor and ship’s behavior.The proposed model solves complexity and non-linearity effectively in the simulation of vessel traffic flow at harbor, and the results are more reality to the actual’ conditions, which reveal the general rule of the evolution and development of vessel traffic flow. The research achievements can provide instruction for the ports’ sustainable development, basic date and decision support for the plan and construction of the waterway, berth and anchorage, and reference of the navigation safety management, traffic organization and the construction of maritime safety security system.