The Reliability Evaluation And Operation Risk Hedging Strategy Of The Power Grid In Heshan

With the development of social economy, the progress of science and technology and people’s living standard have improved continuously, hence the demand and dependence to electricity is more and more. As a result, there is a strong requirement to the safety and stability of power supply. However, due to the factor of power system itself and the influence from external, the power gird accident occur frequently, which not only cause the benefit loss to the power enterprise, but also bring serious influence to the power user and the whole society. In the situation of the power transmission from west to east and the union of north and south, the giant power system across the whole country is emerging. Once serious accident happens in the power system, the scale and loss will be larger than ever. Therefore, it is an important and urgent to ensure the safety, stability and benefit of the grid operation. The reliability of power system has always been an advanced topic with significant social and economic value for the whole society. Currently, the study on reliability of the transmission system is still at the stage of theoretical study, while the research on the power generation system and distribution system is relatively more. Most research is for the grid planning, the reliability of operation is also at the primary stage. Under the development tendency of smart grid, the structure and the operation model of power grid will become more complicated inevitably, risk analysis of grid operation and how to avoid the risk is of great significance to the power companies and the electricity user.Based on the previous work at home and abroad, this paper illustrates the concept of reliability and the influence factors in power system. We focus on the study of reliability index system, when elect the index, not only the reliability but also the safety and benefit should be taken into account. Then give a brief review of the traditional evaluation models on grid reliability, Monte Carlo theory is applied for the evaluation. From the result, we can further conduct the analysis on the operation risk, explore the risk factors and build up the risk index system for the grid operation. At last, we take the power grid in Heshan city as the case study, based on the present situation analysis of its electric market and power operation, we analyze the reliability of high voltage substation and low voltage distribution networks respectively. According to the analysis, there is a conclusion on the comprehensive evaluation and suitable and efficient measures are discussed to improve the reliability of the whole power system. Besides, framework for risk avoidance is presented. The work in this paper can provide as the reference for the future reliability evaluation and risk control work power companies.