Research On Human Reliability Analysis And Accident Pre-control Of Power Grid

The safe and stable operation of power system is of great significance to the national economic development, social stabilization and people’s daily life. With the rapid development of society and economy, the requirement of improving the security and reliability of power supply is continuously increasing. How to further raise the safety management level of power grid and wherever possible reduce accidents is one of the focused problems of today’s power system research. At the same time, along with the improvement of electrical equipment reliability, people’s unsafe behaviors and human error have become one of the main contemporary sources of risks in the grid. However, the research of human reliability analysis in power grid is still in its infancy. In this paper, research on human reliability analysis and accident pre-control of power grid has been conducted, mainly in the following areas.Firstly, the characteristics of safety accident and safety human factors in power grid are analyzed, and the concept of human error and human reliability for power grid operation are given. Based upon the current circumstances in the grid company, this paper studies the categories, mechanism as well as influence factors of human error in power grid operation, laying out the foundation for the quantitative analysis of human reliability.Secondly, in the respect of human reliability analysis (HRA) in power grid, the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), which is a representative second generation HRA method, is cited in this paper. Aiming at the defects and the applicability in power grid of the CREAM, some improvements have been made and a modified approach to evaluate the human reliability and safety level of operation in power grid quantitatively based on the CREAM and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is proposed.Finally, for the engineering practices of HRA in power grid, a HRA and accident pre-control system of power grid is designed and realized following the software engineering methods. This system can enrich the security management method of power grid operation and provide timely update of the human reliability and safety level, which is a powerful support for the human factor accident pre-control.