Load Forecasting Of Shijiazhuang Urban Network Based On Spatial Load Forecasting Method

Power load prediction is the basis of urban network planning.With the requirement of lean management of power system,especially in urban grid planning,space load prediction becomes an important research topic,and higher requirements are put forward for the distribution of load in space and time.Firstly,this paper analyzes the load forecasting situation of shijiazhuang city network,according to the National economic situation and historical load characteristics of urban areas,and gives the main problems in the development of load forecasting of shijiazhuang city network.At the same time,it is pointed out that the space load prediction method has certain advantages in solving the urban network load prediction problem.Secondly,in order to improve the prediction accuracy of spatial load prediction method and reduce the influence of subjective factors,the fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process is applied to calculate the weight and membership of load density index of Shijiazhuang network.By establishing the hierarchical factor index to transform the qualitative factor into the quantitative data,the calculation formula of load density index and load prediction result of Shijiazhuang network is given.Finally,the paper uses the government department "control detailed development plan" as the basis to extract the spatial data,and then divides the land grid on this basis,so that there is only a single land.Based on the actual investigation of the current user load density,and the development of the local social economy and the land load density of other urban power grids,the fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process is used to extract the load density index and calculate the space load forecast.Analyze and determine the nature of various land and load distribution of each small grid in Shijiazhuang city network to guide the planning of Shijiazhuang city power grid.According to this method,any area with the government department "control detailed development plan" can be investigated and analyzed to find out the spatial load of the area,and provide reference for the power grid planning and construction.