Power Transmission Project Cost Risk Assessment Model And Its Empirical Research

Basic industries of the national economy in China is the electric power industry, power grid construction is a people’s livelihood, basic construction, power transmission project construction period, the complexity of the built environment, and the uncertainty of many factors leading to project cost uncertainty increased, soits risk assessment, and effective control methods to avoid ultra-estimates for the occurrence of great significance. In this paper, the characteristics of the power grid construction projects, the combined risk management and cost management, fixed pricing model and the Bill of Quantities mode power transmission project cost of risk management has been studied from the point of view of the construction and management units, respectively. Fixed pricing model, combined with the power grid construction projects constitute substation projects and power transmission projects, cost analysis, historical data on the uncertainties of the power transmission project cost analysis to identify eight main risk factors; to quantify these eight major risk factors, and in accordance with the definition of risk to build the project cost risk function; using probability analysis method to calculate the mean and variance of the hazard function, and build the project cost risk assessment model for construction management the unit construction cost management decision support. BOQ model, the tender bill of quantities and eventually built drawings project the amount of difference, there is the tender units to the risk of unbalanced offer. Imbalance offer in-depth analysis of the bidding strategy of bidding units on the basis of building the basic model, find the optimal offer of the bidders, and then using the var method and Monte Carlo simulation method to construct the project cost management unit risk assessment model the risks faced by the construction management unit metric, there is a big risk to take effective measures should be appropriate to amend the current bidding rules, to minimize the unit bid, in order to reduce the risk of over budget. Regulate the bidding rules, the power transmission project healthy, reasonable, and sustainable development.