| With the development of the twelfth five years’plan, the reliability issues of city distribution network become more and more important. In this paper a reduced distribution network model with element nodes and line ranges is used to analysis the reliability complex distribution network of Zhao city. This model possesses the superiority on the concept and progamming for the complex distribution system with the many sub-feeders including the alternative powers, switch failures, scheduled maintenance and so on. Use the improved gray model to forecast relibility index, with the original data smooth processing and the boundary conditions of modified, improve the prediction precision, expand the scope of application of common gray model. At last, in view of the present situation of distribution network of Zhao city, advance several measures and suggestions to improve the reliability. |
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