Research On Evaluation Operational Reliability In Urban Rush Hour Bus Line

With the rapid development of urban economy and the intensification of urbanization,urban traffic demand is growing and rush hour urban traffic problems are becoming more and more serious.Conventional public transportation is the main body of urban public transportation.As an important part of the urban public transportation system,it plays an important role in alleviating rush hour urban traffic problems.The operational reliability of urban public transport is an important manifestation of the quality of public transportation services,and an important evaluation indicator of public transport appeal.The urban public transportation system is a comprehensive system of interaction between people,vehicles and roads.The reliability of rush hour urban public transport operations is also affected by many factors.In this thesis studies the reliability evaluation index system and evaluation method of rush hour conventional bus operation lines.Firstly,in this thesis analyzes the main influencing factors of rush hour urban bus line operation reliability from aspects of people,vehicles,roads,environment and traffic management.On this basis,based on the main influencing factors,an evaluation index system is establish by target layer of the reliability of rush hour urban bus line operation and the criteria layer of the road facilities,traffic operation environment,operation scheduling and management,passenger travel,vehicles and drivers and the indicator layer of 30 indicators such as bus lane setting ratio,bus harbor parking setting rate,average running speed,congestion ratio,serial ratio.Combined with the characteristics of rush hour urban bus line operation reliability,this thesis uses AHP-entropy weight method to determine index weights,introduces the concept of extendology,and proposes an evaluation method based on matter-element analysis model for urban bus line operation reliability index system.Finally,taking the bus line 702 of Changsha City as an example,the reliability evaluation of the operation reliability of the 702 bus line is carried out,and the countermeasures to improve the reliability of the 702 bus line operation are proposed based on the evaluation results.The evaluation index system and the evaluation method adopted in this thesis have certain guiding significance and practical application value for the evaluation of rush hour urban bus line operation reliability.