Risk Prediction And Assessment Of The Mountain Expressway Transport Of Dangerous Goods Based On Road Factors

Dangerous chemicals, raw materials for industrial production and its products,and social indispensable material. With the rapid development of the logistics now,the industrial layout more and becoming more rational, long-distance transportation ofhazardous chemicals is ineviTab. Due to the restrictions of hazardous chemicals in theaviation, railway, waterway transport, the most dangerous chemicals is done by roadtransport. Prone to dangerous chemicals during transport accidents, caused by theleakage of toxic and hazardous substances, explosion, poisoning and other eventsoccur, causing casualties and property losses, great harm to the larger social impact.Therefore, in order to protect the safety of the transport of dangerous chemicals, riskprediction and evaluation of the transport of dangerous goods to provide securitysupport for the transport of dangerous goods and the relevant administrativedepartments to enrich the practical application of risk prediction and evaluation oftheory.The paper analyzes the situation and development trend of domestic andinternational transport of dangerous goods risk prediction and evaluation, describedthe status and characteristics of the mountain expressway transport of dangerousgoods risk prediction; Detailed analysis of the focus of this study, that is, the specialmountain expressway road conditions, and described the association between theoccurrence of dangerous goods transport accidents; In accordance with thecharacteristics of mountain expressway transport of dangerous goods accident, andcombination of the underlying data, after analysis and comparison, application of timeseries prediction, gray theory prediction method of traffic accident prediction, andemphaticallybased on the relatively intelligent Neural network forecasting techniques,application traffic accidents forecast of medium-and short-term prediction methodbased on neural networks; By the analysis of mountain expressway transport ofdangerous goods accident and cause of the accident, focusing on the analysis of theassociated road factors extracted segment bridges, tunnels, sharp turns, grew up theslope and other special sections as factors of risk assessment, extract these specialsections of the risk evaluation of transport of dangerous goods; application transportof dangerous goods accident probability theory ideological, build the model of theprobability calculation of the risk assessment factors based on road transport of dangerous goods, and as a basis for risk assessment, and finally was evaluated byanalysis of a certain section of expressway features typical mountain as an example.