Research Of Risk Evaluation Of Road Transport Of Dangerous Goods By Tank Car

With the continuous development of China’s economy, the industry of road transport of dangerous goods is rapidly developing and growing. But massive casualties in accidents of dangerous goods in road transportation become much more frequent, and cause dreadful effects of casualties, economic losses and environmental pollution. So the research of risk factors analysis, risk assessment, risk prevention and control of road transport of dangerous goods by tank car based on the theory of risk management, is conducive to reduce the accident rate and the accident loss. The research findings can be used as a theoretical reference for the transportation enterprises safety management and government departments to be monitored. Firstly, based on the statistical analysis of accident, the causation mechanism and reasons of accidents are summarized. Then the influence factors are specified in this paper, and evaluation indexes system of risk factors is established, standard of evaluation is determined, the weights of indicators are calculated, and the method for risk assessment of dangerous goods is proposed. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the actual transport process is carried out. The main contents are as follows:(1) Collect and analyze accidents. Collect 1160 domestic accidents of road transport of dangerous goods by tank car, and analyze the features and reasons of accidents, summarize causation mechanism of accidents. These can be used as important basis to establish the evaluation index system and standard of evaluation.(2) Build risk evaluation indexes system. At first, determine the six risk factors of driver, supercargo, vehicles and equipment, road, environment and dangerous goods. Based on the statistics of accident, analyze the unsafe behavior of "person", the unsafe state of "substance" and the unsafe condition of "environment", and the impact factors with these "unsafe", thus put forward the index system. Then, design questionnaire, survey suitability of indicators, and finish screening index. The final index system contains 1 target layer indicators,6 first grade indicators and 12 second grade indicators of criterions layer,28 index layer indicators.(3) Determine risk assessment standard of indicators. The transport risk level is divided into three levels of low risk, medium risk and high risk. Based on the analysis and description of indicators, apply literature reference, expert consultation and accident statistics to make evaluation standards of 16 quantitative indicators and 16 qualitative indicators.(4) Calculate the weights of indicators. Obtain several judgment matrixes of different levels by different experts through questionnaires. Then, use yaahp software to calculate each index weight and rank. Use the group decision making function of the software to combine with the data from all the experts.(5) Propose risk assessment method of dangerous goods. Consider accident-prone nature. Consider the characteristic of the goods dangerous, traffic, and population density. Based on the accident level and k-means clustering analysis, determine the matrix 5*5 of consequences. Propose the risk assessment and classification methods of dangerous goods.(6) Application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the risk. For a gasoline transport process of a transport company in Beijing in August 17,2015, use statistics and membership function respectively to determine the membership degree of qualitative and quantitative indicators. Then, apply the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the risk of six kinds of risk factors and transportation, and give the risk control suggestions. The results show that the transport process is of low risk, and this approach is comprehensive, scientific and rational, and can be operational. The research findings can provide effective reference for enterprises and government departments to risk assessment.