Research On Regional Electrical Load Long-term Forecasting Based On System Dynamics

Electrical load long-term forecasting is a very important basic task in the electric power industry which is a basis of arranging reasonably power and power grid construction progress, implementing safe, high quality, economic dispatch, and providing macroeconomic policy-making. In recent years, electricity consumption volatile in many regions in China, and distribution of regional power supply and transmission is uneven. Regional and structural fluctuation has occurred, which has significant influence on faster and better development of the national economy and regional economy. Can a country or region’s power industry be a healthy development or not, regional and long-term power load forecasting and planning is the problem.In order to solve the problem of regional and structural fluctuations of the power demand, and maintain health and better development of national economic and regional economic, regional electrical load long-term forecasting is viewed as a system. First, the complexity of the system is analyzed from four perspectives, which are the system structure of regional power demand, actors of the system, complex characteristics of the system, and the complexity measure model of regional electrical load long-term forecasting. Second, based on complexity analysis and system dynamics, the model of regional electrical load long-term forecasting is established. Third, according to historical data and status of Shandong Province, electric power demand is simulated and scenarios are analyzed by the model, so the measures The last, the idea that planned power utilization as an important part of modern business management, particularly demand side management and power load forecasting are proposed.Conclusions show that regional electrical load long-term forecasting is a complex system, and solution to the complexity of regional electrical load long-term forecasting should begin with the idea of overall system. The application of system dynamics is an effective way. Specifically, the study on the complexity of the regional long-term power load forecasting is detailed and comprehensive, providing theoretical support to the system dynamics study on regional power demand, which has a strong practical significance for regional power demand and related factors analysis. The model of system dynamics is rational, having clear parameters, high precision and reality, which provides data support and a quantitative analysis tool for the adjustment of macro-control policy, regional electric power supply and the feasibility study of projects.In addition, enhancing demand side management and power load forecasting can improve planned power utilization, and promote modern business management of power enterprises.