Research On The Forecast Of Regional Electric Power Demands Based On The Grey System Theory

The forecast of regional electric power demands is a very important basic task inthe electric power industry. In this thesis, on the basis of Gray System Theory, theregional electric power demands is forecasted; those factors which influence theelectricity demand and their extent of influence are analyzed. This provides guidelinesfor the planning of power-grid construction, the realization of safe, high-quality andeconomical grid management, and helps to improve the economic and social benefits.In this thesis, on the basis of Gray System Theory, the regional electric powerdemands is forecasted. the forecasting model is based on GM (1,1), which is the basicand most widely used forecast model in gray dynamic models, it can provide forecastfor dynamic, time-related grayprocess.Based on the forecast model, the model for regional electric power demands isestablished. The forecasted electric power demands is very close to the actual value,the grades of the average residual and the post-mortem examination are good. Theprecision of the model's forecast has reached 99.3%. On the other hand, throughanalyzing the correlation of factors which influence the electric power demands, andquantifying and sorting those factors, seeking the cause and effect relationship withinthe system and those factors which affects the target value, so as to hold its mainfeatures, improve and direct its quick and effective development. At the end of thecase, a further sensitivity analysis was performed with respect to the specific factor oftemperature, this is of great realistic importance for the electric power demandsmanagement with respect to the temperature.Through the setting up, calculation and analysis of the model, the forecastmethod has been proven to be correct, scientific and rational, the source of modelparameters is clear, the calculation is simple and the results are explicit and reflect theactual situation. Also, it has been proved that this theory is of significance to theanalysis of regional electric power demands and its factors. This research providesdata support and a quantitive tool for the planning of regional electric power supply,the adjustment of macro-control policy and the feasibilitystudyof projects.