Research On Human Reliability Analysis And Operation Risk In Power System

Grid security has been one of the most concerned problem of the most researchers in power system, and human factors related to the operation reliability is an important part of it. Although human reliability discipline has a long-standing history of research and application in other areas, the human reliability analysis and operation risk assessment in power system is still in its infancy. In view of malignant maloperation cannot completely eliminate and higher security requirements of the smart grid in the future, this paper tries to introduce human reliability analysis method to the power system.Firstly, this paper reviews the research status of human reliability theory in other industrial areas and the development course of the human reliability analysis method. With some basic research of operational reliability and risk assessment which have already been in power system, a human reliability analysis system for the grid is proposed.The human reliability method, especially cognitive reliability and error analysis model (CREAM) of the second generation was absorbed; an improved CREAM for operation reliability analysis in substation is proposed in this paper. This paper has a deep analysis of the operation model, and improves CREAM with situation environment evaluation, control mode and common performance condition score to reduce the uncertainty of the model itself. Case study shows that the improved CREAM method can combine with all kinds of factors to predict operation reliability. The method provides a scientific model for the substation reliability calculation and it is also a theoretical basis for operation risk pre-control.After that, based on extended CREAM and the operation ticket in the power system, a human reliability analysis method for Operation Order is proposed. In addition, this paper also tries to establish the operational risk index system with help of research and interviews. the operating risk is divided into grid loss, equipment damage and personal injury three types, and contact reliability and risk with error effect the probability and adjustment factor.Finally, the Human Reliability Control System is designed. The system is divided into three logical architectures:data access layer, computational analysis layer and Human-Computer interaction layer and it is deployed in a substation and regional monitoring center. HRCS has these functions:reliability data collection, operational risk calculation, equipment operability assessment, personnel skills evaluation, accident inversion, dynamic visual display and hierarchical intelligent warning. HRCS has a scientific model as the internal support which is all for the goal of "operational risk pre-control" and we hope it could help managers improve operational reliability.