The Perceived Travel Time Information Value Based On Regret Theory

Advanced Traveler Information Systems(ATIS) is an important component of the Intelligent Transportation Systems. The real-time travel information acquisition from ATIS can guide a part of travelers to make reasonable travel choices, which is helpful to alleviate traffic congestion and improve the efficiency of the transportation system. However, it has not market demand that travel information should have. The influence of existing travel information and compliance rate is also very limited. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of the travel information usage and the perceived travel information value to better serve travel individuals.This paper starts with the introduction and comparison between the Expected Utility Theory, Prospect Theory and Regret Theory, which are commonly used to study of the travel information utility, and then analyzes the process of travel decision-making after acquisition travel information and the factors affecting the perceived travel information value. Subsequently, taking into account the travel information comparison behavior and risk aversion decision pattern, a model is proposed here to measure the perceived value of travel time information based on the difference of the expected regrets between with and without traveler information and Bayesian updating. Finally, by case scenarios and numerical simulation, we analyzes the characteristics of the perceived travel information value when commuters face different combinative road conditions; we also discusses the value of route choice regret and travel information for different familiar degrees by dividing the commuters’ route familiar degrees into five dimensions, and for different levels of reliability of the information service by dividing the degree of reliability into ten dimensions.The numerical simulation results indicate that the proposed model could comprehensively depict the changes of traveler’s behaviors of route choice and that of the perceived traveler information value under various combinative route conditions; reliable travel information can effectively reduce the uncertainty during travel choices, but travel information is not always valid; both the commuters’route familiarity and reliability of the information impact on the perceived travel information value, but the effect of commuters’ route familiarity is more obvious than reliability of the information. This research provides theoretical basis for discussing the method of formulating effective strategies of travel information release and the willingness to pay for travel information acquisition from ATIS.