Study On Flood Forecasting And Regulating Of The Linhuaigang Project On Huaihe River

Based on reviewing the status of the study about the hydrology models at home and abroad, aimed at the practical situation of catchments above Lutaizi (on principal stream of Huaihe river), these problems, streamflow routing of reach between Wangjiaba and Lutaizi (called Wang～Lu reach for short) considering the utilization of flood zones and flood lakes, flood control pre-cases analysis, real-time flood forecasting and regulating model of Linhuaigang project are studied. Streamflow routing model of Wang～Lu reach, flood control pre-cases analytical model of Linhuaigang project, real-time flood forecasting and regulating model of Linhuaigang project are set up in this study.Aimed at the practical situation of tanglesome river channel between Wangjiaba and Lutaizi, Three kinds of flood routing methods, Muskingum, one dimension hydrodynamic method and two dimension hydrodynamic method are analyzed and compared, then one dimension hydrodynamic model for tanglesome river channel of Wang～Lu reach is set up. One dimension hydrodynamic model is calibrated and verified using 2001～2005years flood season, the result indicates that the one dimension hydrodynamic model established for tanglesome river channel of Wang～Lu reach is correct in a certain level and can satisfy the functional demand of the comparing the flood regulating scheme.Since the 1991, river channel of Wang～Lu reach and flood zones and flood lakes have been changing, especially when the Linhuaigang project was completed at 2005, its main dam closed off old Huaihe river, bypass channel played function and so on. Aimed at the situation of river channel section and flood zones and flood lakes after the operating of Linhuaigang project, Based on one dimension hydrodynamic model of Wang～Lu reach, flood control pre-case analysis model is set up.About 2003 year super flood, joint operation scheme of Linhuaigang project and flood zones and flood lakes is analyzed using flood control pre-case analysis model, and suggests for the regulating utilization of Linhuaigang project are put forward.Based on one dimension hydrodynamic model of Wang～Lu reach and flood control pre-case analysis model, real-time flood forecasting and scheduling model is studied. Real-time flood forecasting and regulating model includes two pars, forecasting of water supply model for Wang～Lu reach and flood optimizing regulation model of Linhuaigang project. Using Bayesian probability theory and method, probability flood forecasting model is set up, this model could make the most of real-time information updating without intermission, and can advance forecast accuracy. Applying decision theory and method, flood optimizing regulation model of Linhuaigang project is established, and forward scrolling decision of flood optimizing regulation is presented.