Study On Regulation Effect Evaluation Of Carrying Capacity Of Water Resources Of Central Henan Urban Agglomeration

Urban agglomeration is the highest spatial organization of urban development in the mature stage. It profoundly affects country urbanization development quality and level, and plays a significant role in sustained and stable economic development of the whole nation. But now, there are lots of bottlenecks encountered in the process of urban agglomeration development. Especially in the eastern China with rapid development of urban agglomeration, some problems have seriously affected the sustainable use of water resources in these urban agglomeration, such as water supply tension, mismatch of water resources and productivity distribution, declining in groundwater level, and serious water pollution. In order to rational develop water resources and promote regional economic and social sustainable development, it’s necessary to determine the level of water resources protection and socio-economic carrying scale in terms of sustainable economic, and establish optimal regulation scheme of improving water resources carrying capacity.In this paper, theories and methods of Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC) evaluation in the urban agglomeration are studied. Its main contents and results are as follows:(1) Based on the analysis of concepts and basic theories of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity(WRCC), characteristics of urban agglomerations water resources system are analysed. Then concept of the WRCC of the Central Henan Urban Agglomeration(CHUA), and main influencing factors and control measures of WRCC is discussed.(2) In view of the concept of WRCC of the urban agglomeration and followed by principle of scientific, completeness, purpose, operability and hierarchical, evaluation index system of WRCC is established from two following aspects:carrying subject and carrying object. The evaluation model is based on Fussy Mathematics.(3) As a case study, WRCC of Central Henan Urban Agglomeration(CHUA) in2015and2020is calculated based on the evaluation model and method. Results shows that the model is feasible and valid. After evaluating WRCC of CHUA in the two planning year,17regulation schemes are proposed with4different aspects: efficient utilization of water resources, industrial structure, water supply structure, and population distribution. Then regulation effect of the17different schemes are analyzed, and optimal regulation scheme are selected by the satisfaction of economic and social development demand in the future.(4) Finally, based on theoretical analysis and results of the case study, this paper proposed conclusions and research issues which requires further study.This paper was suppored by the departments of henan province2010and2011year water resources fee project of "Study on Carrying Capacity of Water Resources of Central Henan Urban Agglomeration".