Research On Carrying Capacity And Regulation Of Water Resources In Liuzhou

In the situation of severe contradictios between supply and demand of water resources and deteriortaing water environment in Liuzhou, the available quantity, demand and carrying capacity of water resources were researched, and also references to the decision about development of society and economy was given by following the principles of sustainable use of watr resources, benign circle of water environment and sustainable development of social and economy. Preliminary study results were given as follow:(1) The inner river environment was divided into three levels as ideal, appropriate and minimum, and coresponding available quantity of water was estimanted by the inverse extrapolation method. The results are respetively 4.133 billion cubic meters,6.344 billion cubic meters and 7.450 billion cubic menters in 2010,21.7%,33.3% and 39.1% of total water resources, the result of 2020 and 2030 was the same as 2010.(2) The idea, "management of water demand" was considered fully in the water prediction which were divided into two aspects, water conservation and present quota. The quantity of water demand are respectively 2.979?3.143 billion cubic meters in 2010, 3.577?3.957 billion cubic meters in 2020 and 4.176?4.635 billion cubic meters in 2030.(3) In the project of present quota, the indexes of carrying capacity degree are respectively are 0.42?0.76,0.53?0.96,0.62?1.12; the figures in the preject of water conservation are 0.40?0.72,0.48?0.87,0.56?1.01.In the projecto of present quota, the index of carrying capacity degrees from January to December seperately are:0.19?3.90,0.26?4.31,0.33?4.7; in water conservation project, the indexes are 0.16?3.65,0.24?3.81,0.31?4.16?Huge differences lie in the monthly indexes and the foreground of water resources exploitation in Liuzhou is not optimistic.(4) The evaluation model about carrying of water resources, which based on the theory of system denamics, was build. Carrying population calculation was also made. Under the present quota scheme, the population are respectively 684 (surplus)?597 (surplus) million, 526 (surplus)?435 (surplus) million and 212 (surplus)?112 (surplus) million. Under the water conservation scheme, the figures are 771 (surplus)?787 (surplus) million,615 (surplus) ?587 (surplus) million and 260 (surplus)?217(surplus) million.(5) In the analysis of water resouces regulation, attention was paid to the availablity and demand of water resources, among which the regulation prospects of the available amount of surface water resources, agricultural water demand and industrial water demand are considerable. Meanwhile, the industrial structure and quota management are set as priliminary regulation targets. After the process of regulation, the population scale which water resources are capable would enhance 0.49?1.9 million, monthly populatio scale would be 10?340 thousand. Since the effect is obvious, it is essential to conduct the strictest water management.