Research Of The Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of The Urban Agglomerations In The Northwest China

Water resource is not only the basis of life on the earth,but also the source of human civilization.The relationship of water resource and human has always been interrelated interaction,on the one hand,water resources is essential to life and production,on the other hand,the scale of the human economic and social activities directly affects the quality and quantity of water resources.The sustainable development and utilization of water resources is a necessary prerequisite for the sustainable development of economy and society.Water as the basic resource which plays an important supporting role in the life support system and economic development.With the rapid economic and social development and the rapid urbanization,water shortage and water environmental damage has become a global problem,water resource is no longer inexhaustible natural resources,and more and more become a kind of limited resources.In the strategic concept of "the Silk Road Economic Belt" and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,the northwestern China is in the core region.As the "the Silk Road Economic Belt" is put forward and the strategic practice of supporting measures,the region has a number of high density agglomeration,is located in the transport hub of urban agglomeration,,it will become a hot spots for the development and investment both at home and abroad,with a number of high-density agglomeration and transportation in the region.In particular,the drought and water shortage in the northwest of China,the fragility of ecological system,water resources is facing severe situation,the construction of "the Silk Road Economic Belt" brings new opportunities to the agglomeration of the population and the rapid economic development,but also brings great challenges at the same time.Whether the water resources carrying capacity can support its economic and social development is related to the regional urban agglomeration can achieve sustainable development.Based on this,the paper analyzes and evaluates the water resources carrying capacity of the urban agglomeration of the northwest from the aspects of the water resources conditions,economic conditions,social conditions and ecological environmental conditions.First of all,the paper applies the method of set pair analysis to make comprehensive evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of the urban agglomerations in the northwest China,then the exponential smoothing method is used to forecast the water resources carrying capacity.The results show that the water resource carrying capacity of the urban agglomeration in the northwest of China has improved from 2006 to 2014,with the exception of Karamay and Turpan,The water resources carrying in the urban agglomeration of Guanzhong-Tianshui and Lanbaixi with high water resources and relatively poor social-economic conditions was better than the other cities.There is room for the development of water resources and great potential for economic and social development.The water resources carrying capacity of the urban agglomeration in Jiujia,Yinchuan Plain and the economic belt of Tianshan North-Slope is weakness,the water resources of these urban agglomeration are poor,While the economic and social conditions are relatively high.The results of the short-term prediction show that the water resources carrying capacity of the urban agglomerations in Northwest China will be further improved from 2015 to 2019,but the growth rate is still slow and the overall level is still low,the carrying capacity of the water resources still needs to be further improved.The water resources carrying capacity of Guanzhong-Tianshui urban agglomeration is still in the top of the five urban agglomerations,and the water resources carrying capacity is improved significantly.The water resources carrying capacity of Yinchuan plain urban agglomeration will be obviously improved and the average annual increase is much higher than the rest urban agglomeration.The water resources carrying capacity of Lan-Bai-Xi urban agglomeration shows a slow growth trend,the north slope of Tianshan North-slope urban agglomeration level changed little.and the water resources carryingcapacity of the Jiu-Jia-Yu urban agglomeration is changed slightly showing a slow descending trend.Based on the above results,this paper puts forward that,based on reasonable selection of urban development scale and relied on the supporting measures,it is necessary to improve the water resources utilization,rationally control the population,adjust the industrial development structure,strengthen the water ecological protection to promote self circulation of water resources and other measures to improve the water resources carrying capacity of each urban agglomeration.