Research On The Impact Of Climate Change In Tailan River Basin On Possible Maximum Flood

Regarding by methods of PMF with the rainstorm and the snowmelt mix supplies calculation,the standard had not gave the concrete computational method as well as the summarizedexperience. It is the difficulty for design flood computation of mix supplied rivers in Xinjiang. Asthe climate warming, temperatures and the space-time distribution and intensity of precipitationare changing, what led to the increase of extreme weather events. And the construction of manymontane controlled water conservancy hub in Xinjiang have been mentioned to planning designschedule, so the standard of check flood for the large water conservancy project, also shouldconsider the factors of climate change.Thought Tailan River Basin as an example, this article selected two historical measuredprecipitation, using the water vapor efficiency enhancement method, calculated the correspondingPMP.In this paper, by using the method of frequency analysis, calculated the flooding process withrecurrence interval of ten thousand years in this basin.This paper analyzed the runoff yield conditions which could produce the PMP; determined thetimes when PMP would happen; drew up the method to maximize the temperature;analyzed thepossible combinations of PMP, the temperature and the snowmelt; determined the most dangeroussituation when the PMF occured, calculated the different combinations of runoff yield conditionwith the Xin’anjiang Model, contained the snowmelt structure, then output the PMF process;finally compared with the result with the recurrence interval of ten thousand years, and analyzedthe rationality of PMF.According to the background of climate warming, the paper analyzes the climate tendency ofTailan River basin, proposed the future climate change scenarios; simulated the PMF with theXin’anjiang Model, which contained the snowmelt structure, analyzed the response of PMF totemperature change. Results show that the temperature rise increases the PMF, and result tosignificant impact on the process of PMF.The research results of this article can provide a reference for the computation of PMF inblended replenishment rivers, and come up with a new reference standard for water conservancyhub as a kind of checking flood.