The Study On Prediction Model And Simulation Of Dendrolimus Superans

This paper based on Hebei Agricultural University College of forestry 2001-2008 on dendrolimus superans collected data , to entomology and insect physiology, pathology as the theoretical guidance, as to Logistic regression theory basic model established the calculation model of larch caterpillar which include its living environment, growth and harm degree of the calculation model, through computer simulation, realized the prediction and forecast about dendrolimus superans harm the coniferous forests, to take reasonable measures and efforts to provide a scientific basis.Dendrolimus superans growth and harm by the influence of many sided reason. The results show that, the temperature can directly impact the pine caterpillar breeding, uncertain temperature, temperature on the caterpillar mortality has important influence of environmental humidity on eggs; and early larval development and survival has certain effect, low humidity on egg has significant adverse effects; precipitation will change is in the air and the soil moisture, effects on the host plant containing content and caterpillar itself development, and can direct mechanical kill newly-hatched larvae of pine caterpillar dendrolimus superans feeding; compare a single, large area of Larch in pure forest in favor of pine caterpillar, and mixed forest were contrary; in addition, light intensity, wind and other environmental factors on punctatus development also has certain effect.In this model, pay attention to the judgment of each influencing factor of Larch caterpillar damage in pine during role played by size, so as to implement specific prevention programmes to provide more accurate basis. In the optimization model, through the method of fuzzy identification, fuzzy set, membership function is defined to determine, according to the calculation of membership degrees of membership of fuzzy recognition, so as to judge the fall leaves pine caterpillar fundamental hazard degree.Dendrolimus superansis affect the development of our country forestry natural disasters, but also the important factors to reduce the income of forest farmers . With the development of network technology, network information service platform offers powerful support basic on the advantages about information sharing, information efficiency and so on.By dendrolimus superans incidence, survival environment, harm degree, inducing factor, calculation model, simulation of Larch caterpillar transmission, living habits and eating pests coniferous, inhibition of dendrolimus control environment, establishment of dendrolimus superans hazard forecast system has important research significance and application value. Through computer simulation forecast the dendrolimus harm, for the relevant departments to adopt more reasonable control method to prepare for the sustainable control of Larch caterpillars, and forestry sustainable development has important significance in theory and practice.