Research On The Bias In Affective Forcasting Of University Students And Its Effect Mechanism

Affective forecasting is the emotional state of individuals to predict the thing offuture. We can not live without affective forecasting. Its importance is that eachdecision we have made is based on the prediction of the affective result of thismatter. We do this because we believe that this decision could bring us morehappiness compare to others. However, there will be some inevitable systematicerrors in affective forecasting, which would have impact on people’s lives. Theresearch on the bias in affective forecasting is the expansion of sentiment research,and it is a lack of research about the bias in affective forecasting in China. Thisarticle is written according to the characteristics of the sentiment of the universitystudents, it is trying to do the research on the mechanism of action of affectiveforecasting by the way of doing the experiments and questionnaire surveys which isaimed to verify whether the factors such as Need of cognition, Emotional intelligence,Self-concept, General self-efficacy and the future time perspective etc. would havethe impact on the accuracy of people’s affective forecasting, and verify whether theaffective forecasting, as a part of sentiment, would influence the aggressive behaviorand altruistic behavior of the university students.Through the analysis of related factors, this article makes people have a betterunderstanding of the essence of affective forecasting, and do an in-depth research ofaffective forecasting, also provide a theoretical principle for promoting the accuracyof the affective forecasting of university students, controlling their aggressivebehavior effectively, and promoting their altruistic behavior.On the basis of relevanttheories and researehes， the study combines the researeh methods such asANOVA(analysis of variance), correlation analysis, regression analysis,SEM(structural equation modeling), The conclusions are as follows.1. The obvious diversity exists in the points of view of the bias in affective forcastingwhose demographic characteristics vary by gender,grade,only child,subiect aftert-testing and ANOVA analysis.2. After correlation analysis,regression analysis,;the need for cognition plays anmediating part between self-concepy and the bias in affective forcasting;mthe need for cognition,identification,self-satisfaction,applicationof emotion,the futureeffectiveness and self regulation of emotions has a significantly negative predictiveeffect in the bias in affective forcasting.3. After ANOVA analysis, the bias in affective forcasting influence aggressivebehavior,but there is no evidences that he bias in affective forcasting can influencethe altruistic behavior.4. The article systematieally summarizes the main researeh and consequentconclusion and discusses the contribution and realistic signifieance of the theory. Atlast，limitation in the study and the upcoming direction for improvement are added.