The Influence Of Instant Emotion In Affective Forecasting Bias Of Group Decision Making

Affective forecasting bias refers to people overestimate their own emotional experience in the future, namely overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional experience in the future. Studies have demonstrated that affective forecasting bias exist at the individual level, the bias will change people’s judgment of future events. So, is there an affective forecasting bias at the group level? Which factor can influence this bias? Instant emotion can influence decisions making, if decision makers were in a state of active emotion, they tend to make positive judgment; Correspondingly, if decision makers were in a negative state, they will make negative judgment as will, so the individual estimates the emotional impact in the wrong way. So, can instant emotion continue to affect the affective forecasting bias of group decision making?The first experiment adopt a single factor experiment design, using Jenga games as a group decision tasks, combining with the questionnaire and scale, verifying whether there is any affective forecasting bias in group decision making. The second experiment is between subjects design, after priming different instant emotions, groups finished the decision task, followed by targeted feedback basic on the different started mood. Using scales and questionnaires to collect data. Discusses the influence factors of affective forecasting bias in group decision making, verify whether instant emotion and decision-making task success or not can affect the Affective forecasting bias in group decision making, as well as their interaction.This study analysis data with the help of SPSS 22, inspect by the t test and analysis of variance.The results of the study are as follows:1. The impact bias of affective forecasting exist in the group decision making. Predicting emotions significant difference with actual experience in group decision making. Studies show that the affective forecasting is higher than the actual emotional experience in individual level, but that is different in groups level which affective forecasting lower than the actual experience. The impact bias of affective forecasting in group decision is exist.2. Instant emotion have no significant influence in impact bias of affective forecasting(p > 0.05); Whether the group decision task success or not significantly influence the impact bias of affective forecasting(p < 0.01); The interaction between instant emotion and Whether the group decision task success or not was not significant(p > 0.05).3. There is a significantly undervalued phenomenon in affective forecasting of group decision. Different from individual level, affective forecasting was significantly lower than the actual experience in group decision making, this is not consistent with the definition of affective forecasting. We think the reason of this phenomenon maybe that the task itself was so fun that interferenced the forecasting; In addition, conformity may also force the participants to give up their own feelings; Furthermore, group polarization maybe one of the possible cause that lead the group becoming conservative.