Influence Of Surprise On The Three Component Of Hindsight Bias

A systematic difference between ex-ante and post judgment is hindsight bias. Surprise is hindsight bias produced a prerequisite for the reversal of the deviation will lead to wise after the event type, different studies draw very different conclusions. Hartmut Blank and Steffen Nestler study deviation consists of three independent thought wise after the event type, can be completely apart from the composition, composition, predictability, namely, inevitable impression composition and memory distortion components. But existing research has not engaged in intelligent type deviation after three components point of view to explore surprise for hindsight bias. This study attempts to use Component view to mediate a conflict between these studies, studying the effect of amazing feeling for hindsight bias, rich in hindsight bias research.In experiment1, we find surprise for hindsight bias three component has a different effect, in for a surprise group, participants in predictability impression composition on the composition of and the inevitable impression on both the deviation of hindsight type reversal phenomenon. For the surprise group, participants in predictability impression on hindsight bias, on the composition of inevitability impression not appear hindsight bias.In experiment2, by under the background of surprise to join prompt variables and explanatory variables, study on the composition of predictability, prompt variable significant main effect, prompt group in hindsight bias, for the prompt group, the reversal of the subjects appeared on hindsight bias; No significant main effects while explaining variables. On the composition of inevitability impression, explain variables and the main effects are significant, explain group hindsight bias, and explained to the group, not in hindsight bias type inversion; Tip group in hindsight bias, the prompt group in hindsight the reversal of the deviation. Prompt and explaining variables interaction was not significant. Because in this study, participants were not present memory, memory distortion component did not change. Findings support the Component view, and preliminary findings surprise affect three elements along a different path.