| Environmental surprises are bound to occur. Surprise is a phenomenon relative to human perception and is felt when events deviate from the expected or are entirely unanticipated prior to their occurrence. Surprise is induced by uncertainty, complexity, and chaos in environmental systems and exacerbated by anthropogenic attempts to gain control over these systems. In my thesis, I review the concept of surprise and its role in ecosystem management and financial markets. In particular, I focus on the connection between surprise and sustainability. I review the quantification of surprise and its application to water resource management, while stressing the importance of integrating non-quantifiable notions of surprise into decision-making for a more sustainable approach to management. Lastly, I explore methods in which integrated adaptive management and critical thinking embrace uncertainty by absorbing surprise impacts, and I explain how improving societal coping mechanisms can reduce adverse impacts of human-induced surprises. |
