Scenery Wood Chuwei Network System Load Forecasting Algorithm And Control Strategy Research

The microgrid is one of the topics in the field of new energy control study at domestic and foreign at the forefront. Compared with the conventional distributed power on grid, the structure of microgrid is flexible, and the distributed power system with local load has been formed as a whole. The load forecasting and load control strategies of wind-solar-diesel-battery hybrid power generation system have been analyzed. The innovation work and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) According to the power load characteristics of both regularity and randomness, a novel load forecasting method based on the integration of similar day load and recent historical load is proposed. In terms of similar day load, this algorithm, firstly, utilizes matching coefficient of meteorological factors to quantify the similarity, then uses membership degree of day-type for the modification of similarity. After the process of filtering, the input sequence is made up of the combination of modified similar day load and recent historical load. The result of simulation indicates that, compared to these forecasting algorithms merely based on similar day load or on recent historical load, either absolute mean error or mean square deviation of the algorithm presented in this paper is smaller and the precision of load prediction is higher.(2) The characteristics of the microgrid load control strategy has been analyzed; In this paper a microgrid load control model is established whose objective is to minimize the compensation, and then a calculating method of gradual economic load shedding/combining is presented to solve the model. Both the load-shedding efficiency and unit load-shedding cost for each bus is considered in this method. Firstly, the load priority has been determined according to the node load constraint, and then considering load-shedding costs of each node unit, the cost-effective indicators to determine the optimal load shedding points has been introduced, and the best point of cut load has been calculated.Based on the above research work, the simulation model of load control strategy has been created. The results show that the load control strategy of wind-solar-diesel-battery hybrid power generation system designed in this paper can eliminate the shortfall and decrease the load compensation of microgrid.