A Study On The Early Warning Of Rural Mass Incidents

Rural mass incidents have become an important factor of social stability in rural areas, reflecting the government’s one-sided understanding on social stability. The social stability in some government officials’ thought is a static one. They believe that if farmers do not reflect problems, the rural society is stable. And they deal with the problems farmers reflect negatively, do not respect farmers’ legitimate interests, and deny farmers’rights. Over time, the grass-roots government’s prestige in farmers is greatly reduced, and farmers’status of vulnerable groups have been pushed over the limit. Once a small incident happens, touches the sensitive area of farmers’spirit, and makes the "field of Qi" expand, then large-scale mass incidents are likely to occur, and they impact grassroots political power’s stability, resulting in the disorder of the area’s production and living. Therefore, strengthening the early warning of mass incidents in rural areas can help monitor and reduce instability in rural areas, so as to achieve the goal of a dynamic social stability in rural areas.The study suggests that rural mass incidents occurr because of the combination of comprehensive factors. Based on this assumption, firstly the study analyzes rural mass incidents’incentives from the macro theoretical view. They include political factors (the inefficience of political participation, the distortion of political decision-making, the weakness of policy implementation, the inefficience of political supervision, the weakness of political control), economic factors (serious interest conflict, slow income growth of farmers, more expenditure of farmers, the widening income gap). cultural factors (the weakness of farmers’ consciousness. the low level of education), legal factors (lack of judicial resources, weakness of judicial effectiveness). and social factors (weakened social control, malignant development of clan force. deterioration of social conditions in rural areas). As a case of rural mass incidents, the Hainan incident is analyzed for additional facts convincing of the study. The factors’ importance is inconsistent, and the incident reflects farmers’ subjective idea, which is farmers’view on these factors. Therefore, firstly with the entry point, the study constructs a preliminary early warning indicator system mainly constituted by qualitative indicators. Accounting for the early warning indicator system’s reasonableness and comprehensiveness. the study designed an expert questionnaire, whose survey included grass-roots civil servants, village leaders and scholars. According to their opinions, the study comes to the basic concept of the early warning indicator system of rural mass incidents, and uses the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to construct a prediction model of rural mass incidents. Through the social survey, the study uses the early warning model to evaluate a certain town’s social status in Northern Jiangsu.Finally, the study suggests that it is the first to establish early warning mechanism to prevent the occurrence of rural mass incidents, including the mechanism of gathering and identifying information and the government information disclosure mechanism. In view of the limited government capacity and the distortion of social investigation, the government should attract private institutions and individuals to participate in the early warning of rural mass incidents under the guidance of the concept of governance and the theory of public crisis management. Secondly, to prevent the occurrence of rural mass incidents, it is fundamental to improve the institution of farmers’ political participation and raise their income, etc., so that the farmers’ ways of expressing interests can be reflected in more institutionalized participation.