Decision Analysis Of U.S. Arms Sales To Taiwan In1992

The Taiwan question is the most sensitive issue in the Sino-U.S. relationship, and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is a very important one of it. The issue of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is a problem left over from the normalization of Sino-US relation, it is the main means, performing "Taiwan Relations Act" which is passed through by the United States Congress, and an important way for the United States to interfere in Chinese internal affairs. Up to now, the dispute between China and America about this issue has still not been solved completely.Decision-making process of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is discussed in this paper, with the case of George Herbert Walker Bush selling to Taiwan150F-16fighters in September1992. It is directed by the research method of combining macro and micro analysis, studied the international environment and domestic factors that influence the decision-making of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, discussed the comprehensive evaluation of the potential reaction of China by American decision-makers during this process, and analyzed the decision’s impact on Sino-US relationship. After the cold war that international configuration has taken great changes, the United States fully estimates China’s potential reaction or possible retaliation measures before making arms sales policy, but in this era of the strategic basis between Sino-U.S. dispeling, the United States no longer scruples about Chinese ideas as it did before the fall of the Soviet Union, at most making up for it to a certain extent to moderate Chinese reactions. The United States are more and more paying attention to its domestic factors in the formulation of the policy of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. In an international configuration that U.S. is strong and China weak, needing American help, China has no measures to stop the decision of U.S. arms sales to be made, and has also no substantive retaliation on United States after the decision has made. China almost can do little for American behavior expect expressing outrage and serious protest.Three parts are included in this paper, which are preface, text and conclusion. The text is mainly launched the elaboration from the following three aspects:Section one:analyse the changes in the international situation around1990s and the influence of these changes on Sino-U.S. relations and U.S.-Taiwan military relations. The drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union led to the joint strategy basis which China and U.S. combined against the Soviet Union. China’s strategic value to the United States declined. The foreign policy which the two sides have set aside ideological differences to cooperate over strategy effectively ends. The Beijing political crisis in June1989as a fuse caused relatively stable but fragile Sino-US relationship in the1970s and1980s came to a crisis, America’s China policy became the focus of American debate fiercely. All these events set the stage for Bush administration to adjust US-Taiwan military relations in1992.Section two:study the main realistic factors influencing the making of this decision and psychological prediction by American decision-makers on China’s future responses and measures, with the case of George Herbert Walker Bush selling to Taiwan150F-16fighters in September1992. Decision-making is a complex process, involving many factors. Beijing’s political crisis and the cold war’s end deteriorated Sino-US military relations, China turned to the Soviet Union to buy Su-27in order to realize the modernization of military, which became the reason of the United States arms sales to Taiwan to balance the military power between the two sides of the Straits. That Bush in the inferior position in the election politics supported employment in Tex to get the votes there was the main internal factor that influenced Bush’s decision. The conclusion that Chinese reaction would be mild which was made by American decision-making layer drove this decision directly. So even though Bush has a profound friendship with the Chinese leaders, attaches great importance to Sino-US relations, Bush finally made the decision to sell F-16to Taiwan, considering the adverse election situation. The F-16event reflects the consideration of return to domestic factors in the process of U.S. decisions-making, it also reflects the policy of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan since1979changed fundamentally.Section three:analyse the influence that Bush annouced to sell Taiwan150F-16fighters on the Sino-US relations. Bush knew China, and he knew this decision would impact on Sino-US relations, so he made some compensation for the Chinese to avoid the tense trend between China and U.S., including the removal of military sanctions on China since1989. Faced with this decision that violated the Sino-US joint Communiques and damaged China’s national sovereignty, China was undoubtedly very indignant. However, in the international background of post-cold-war period, and under the circumstance of China in weak situation, China could do little, but had to compromise. From this case, we can see the fact that China had no alternatives in the issue of US arms sales to Taiwan. Bush’s policy of arms sales to Taiwan opened the spell on the question of Taiwan again, making the bumpy Sino-US relations after1989more tense.In the end of this paper, it is pointed that, in the foreseeable future, as long as China is not unified, and as long as the "Taiwan Relations Act" continues to be valid, the United States will continue to help Taiwan to fulfill the "self-defense" obligations on the grounds that Chinese Mainland’s military power has strengthened and sell military weapons to Taiwan. All that is China can’t change. China will condemn and oppose US policy, but China can’t stop US behavior in the basic force contrast situation of Sino-US relations that US is much stronger than China is still not be changed. And China isn’t willing to do something to damage the whole Sino-US relationship because of Taiwan issue. These three parts’elaborations make the decision-making process of selling F-16fighters to Taiwan in1992and the decision’s influence clear, and provide the reference for China to find the way to solve U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.