Since 1990, Jiangsu Province Population Spatial Pattern And Evolution Mechanism

This paper, taking Jiangsu province as an example, describes the spatial pattern’s basic characters and evolutionary tendency of the diverse population in Jiangsu province at county level since the1990s. This period is divided into three time discontinuity surfaces as1990,2000and2010. The main researching methods are related analysis of population density’s spatial framework, population urbanization analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, population gravity center model and Shift-Share Analysis, as well as unbalanced index. The author probes into the evolutionary mechanism and influence factors of this phenomenon by principal component model and geography weighted regression model. Then the author gives a primary discussion about the trend of population distribution pattern of Jiangsu province in the future, which is divided into4square arrays. Based on the results, some conclusions are drawn as follows:(1) Population density in Jiangsu has "low-South and high-North" feature, which is corresponding with its economic development level.(2) Based on the4types of urbanization population level of Jiangsu province nowadays, the spatial pattern can be divided into Southern Region, Central Region and Northern Region.(3) There is certain spatial relevance on population distribution in Jiangsu. High-high areas cluster in counties along the Yangtze River, Southeast coastal region and counties around Taihu Lake. Low-low areas cluster in north part of Jiangsu. The trends are changing remarkably as time goes by. The downtown areas gather more people than the counties in Northern Region in Jiangsu province for its better economic development, as a result, forming high-low areas with surrounding counties. Counties in transition zone between high-high areas and low-low areas form low-high areas with surroundings counties because of the less exposure from developed area. The area of high population density in Jiangsu province presents a certain appearance of littoral, coastal and limnetic. As the general spatial framework remains relatively stable, counties in high-high areas become less but counties in low-low areas become more.(4) The population distribution in Jiangsu is unbalanced and this unbalance is enhancing. The population gravity center slowly moves to southeast of Jiangsu in these twenty years.(5) Population is growing at a slow rate. Population concentration ability is not alike in the three regions of Jiangsu province. Central Jiangsu is short of people clustering but Southern and Northern Jiangsu constantly strengthens.(6) The driving force can be concluded into5aspects: historical development, level of social life, economic development level, natural growth of the population and the policies on regional development. The population increase in Central Jiangsu and Southern Jiangsu is mechanical but natural in Northern Jiangsu. Finally, the paper gives corresponding measures, which helps government make plans.