The Research Of Population Distribution Pattern Of Space And Time In Gansu Province And Its Influencing Factors

Population distribution and its influence factors, and the relation between population distribution and economic development are important research problem of population geographies and economic geographies, and main content of regional sustainable development research. Taking 87 counties in Gansu province as the research object, this paper will analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of population distribution from 1990 to 2010 in Gansu Province with the use of the fourth, fifth and sixth census data, and spatial statistics methods. Based on the six census data of Gansu province in 2010 and the relevant natural index and social economic statistical data, the paper will research the impact of range population distribution from the natural, economic, social and demographic factors with the help of spatial econometrics model. According to the coefficient of population economic consistency CPE and population economic deviation index CD, the paper will analyze and evaluate the consistency of population distribution and economic development in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2010 at the county, region and all the province level, to find out the relations and problems between population distribution and regional economic development, and then put forward the reasonable population redistribution to promote the ideas and policy of the coordinated development of population and economy. The main contents of this paper include following three aspects:(1) The temporal and spatial characteristics of population distribution from 1990 to 2010 in Gansu province. During 20 years, Gansu province has been uneven population distribution. In the overall spatial distribution, the population size in the northwest and southwest is smaller, but the northeast and southeast is larger. In five partitions, Hexi and Gannan populations are smaller, but Longnan, Longdong and Longzhong are larger. Population redistribution analysis show that the population size and population density in counties of Gansu province are auto correlated, and the population quantity and population density in space distribute assembly. The counties in big population size and high population density are linked. Oppositely, those with small population size and low population density are neighbored. The significant agglomeration areas in population size of high positive correlation are mainly distributed in Longdong and Longnan. The significant agglomeration area in population density height in Gansu is the unique big city Lanzhou, located in Longzhong with three districts:Chengguan District, Anning District and Qilihe District. The small population size and low population density zones are mainly in the Hexi and Gannan. The analysis of population distribution index show again that the Gansu population is gathering highly in specific counties and distributing unbalanced.(2) The factors affecting the population distribution in Gansu province. This article selects the natural, economic, social and population 4 major categories of 6 indicators, and analyzes and compares them using the Open GeoDa software with the original linear system (OLS), the spatial lag model(SLM) and spatial error model (SEM), to take the spatial lag model as the optimal model. The regression results show that:the natural factors in the altitude have a negative effect on population distribution-the population reduces while the altitude increases. Economic factors significantly influence on population distribution. Economic development level and population distribution are a positive correlation. The population density in the high level economic development areas is greater than that of the low ones. However, the consumption level and population distribution are a negative correlation. Population density in the low material consumption region is bigger than the high ones. Social factors such as education and health have a great influence on population distribution. People’s education level has a significant positive effect on the local population distribution. So do health conditions, but not significantly. In addition, there is a clear positive correlation between historic population base and population distribution.(3) The space consistency of population distribution in Gansu province and the economic development. With the method of combining rational and quantitative analysis, the paper analyzes and evaluates the spatial consistency of the population distribution economic development in counties, regions and the whole province from the year of 2000 and 2010 in Gansu through the construction of population economy consistency CPE and the economic population deviation index CD. Researches show that:in 2000 and 2010, county population assembles in Gansu economy show obvious economy direction. Population agglomeration and economic agglomeration uncoordinated obviously. And the concentration of population is higher than the economic agglomeration as the main feature. Population and economic space consistency is improved gradually, and the coordination of population and economic is strengthened. The population distribution and economic development is relatively consistent in the counties of Hexi, Longdong, Longnan and Gannan. These counties where the population agglomeration is below the economic agglomeration mainly distribute Hexi area with rare population and high economic development, and developed counties in Lanzhou. And 10 the basic maintains this same pattern about 10 years. Those counties where the population agglomeration is above the economic agglomeration mainly distribute patchily in Longzhong, Longnan and Longdong areas. From the year of 2000 to 2010, the consistence distance of the population economic is reducing in every area, especially Longxi and Longdong. But it is increasing in Longzhong, Longnan and Gannan. From 2000 to 2010, in the scale of the whole province, the degree of population and economy consistency shows an increasing trend.