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The Application Of Stochastic Process In Economic And Management

Posted on:2011-06-21Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z J LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330338496411Subject:Probability theory and mathematical statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In this paper, we make a model about the direct consumption coefficient. By the model, weformulate the analytic density function of direct consumption coefficient, then, the density function ofthe mixture model are exponential distribution to give the expression of direct consumptioncoefficient, and then we get the predicted value of direct consumption coefficient, we use instance toexplain feasibility of the method in this paper.Because of the limit of resources, we may not implement all projects for the multi-projectmanagement and strategic decision. A new method to solve the priority ranking of multi-projectmanagement is proposed in this paper. Namely, we build up a Markov chain with resourceinteractions in multi-project, and get priority of each project by getting the stationary distributions ofthe Markov chain. This method can solve the priority ranking problem in multi-project management,decision and performance because of the limited resource.
Keywords/Search Tags:Multi-project management, Markov chain, Stationary distribution, Priority ranking, Input-Output model, direct consumption coefficient, mixture model, Expectation MaximizationAlgorithm
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