Analysis And Forecast Of The Impact Of Carbon Emission Factor Based Kaya Formula

Increasing carbon emissions has become one factor which undermines global environmentaland influences human existence, but also become an important factor constraining thesustainable social-economic development. In order to realize the sustainable economicdevelopment, it is very necessary to analyze the carbon emissions factors and predict the futurecarbon emissions.Firstly, this paper estimates carbon emissions of1995,1998-2009years of China. Theresults show that the carbon emissions of China have been growing year by year since1995.Secondly,This paper analyzes the relationship between Chinese carbon emissions and itsinfluence factors by the grey system theory and methods. The results show that the coalconsumption on carbon is the highest, secondly for oil consumption, gas consumption,hydropower consumption and GDP, finally for nuclear power and population growth. Theresearch also shows that, the reasonable selection of energy consumption structure is one of themost important measures for realizing a win-win situation between carbon emissions andeconomic development in the economic activities. Finally, this paper predicted the2012-2021years of carbon emissions in China by the gray forecasting model. The next decade, if we donothing, carbon emissions will continue to increase and the growth multiples will be higher thanthe previous decade. Finally, this paper has put forward the specific policies andrecommendations for sustainable development.