The Analysis Of Carbon Emissions Strength And Influence Factors Which Based On Emission Reduction Goals And Economic Growth Double Constraint

As the development of economics, climate change becomes a global problem. Ourcountry is the biggest dioxide emission country in the world, as a developing country, facingboth economic development and carbon reduction of dual task. Chinese leader made apromise on Copenhagen conference in2009: in2020, our country’s unit GDP of carbondioxide down40-45%in2005. This target needs to be researched whether it is feasible or not.This paper mainly use the theories of sustainable development, low carbon economy theory asa foundation, LMDI decomposition and improvement of MACRO model to analyze theproblem, at last, combining with carbon emissions targets in China in2020, explores theinfluence of the carbon intensity factors, and the possibility of the realization of the goal.The article is divided into five chapters, the first chapter mainly introduces the researchbackground, research purpose and meaning, research situation and innovative points; Inchapter2, we analyzed and compared carbon emissions intensity in China; The third chapteruse LMDI factor decomposition, made the carbon emissions intensity into the energystructure and energy efficiency and industrial structure three factors, then analyzed the threefactors respectively; In chapter4, we reference MACRO model and create a new model whichused2020carbon intensity policy goals in it, analyzes China’s carbon emissions intensity andthe influence to the economic development of target in2020; Chapter5is the conclusion ofthis paper and some suggestions on the way of realize2020carbon emissions targets.The study of China’s carbon dioxide emissions intensity show that the carbon intensitycan be broken down into energy structure, energy efficiency and industrial structure, theenergy efficiency is the main reason for the decline of carbon emissions intensity, energystructure have a smaller influence, but industrial structure almost have little influence on it.Reference to MACRO model, we built a new one to analyze under2020carbon intensityreduction targets scene, we find in2020, economic development still can reach the level ofeight growth, but due to the strong measures before, further reduction will be difficult.