Economic Impact Assessment Of Emerging Technologies Based On Seimic Approach

With the rapid development of science and technology, emerging technology afteranother, who is more and more impact on the state and society, so many countries areto seize the commanding heights of the emerging technologies. In a sense, the futurecompetitiveness of state, industry and enterprises is the competition of emergingtechnologies, thus the size of the economic effects of emerging technologies is themost core of the problem. But how to assess the economic effects of emergingtechnologies, and thus their choices and the strong support of its development at thenational and enterprise in the face of a difficult problem, which is also currently thetheoretical circle is very weak aspect. At present, domestic and international researchon the assessment of economic effects of emerging technologies are not matureenough. Therefore proposing a method to assess economic effects of emergingtechnologies, with scientific and effective and easy to implement, is the goal of thisstudy.In this paper, a method based on magnitude of the economic effects of emergingtechnologies for the evaluation framework was established, and last empirical analysiswas made. First, this paper discussed the economic impact of emerging technologiesrespectively from their evaluation content and evaluation methods. Based on reviewof economic impact assessment of emerging technologies from scholars both at homeand abroad, by references of relevant researches, the paper proposed the idea using"seismic approach" that is introducing the seismic scale of Mercalli used formeasuring the intensity of earthquake into economic impact assessment of emergingtechnologies, proposed the scale of economic impact assessment of emergingtechnologies. In this paper the principle of seismic was applied into economic system,and the theoretical framework was constructed to evaluate the economic impact ofemerging technologies in the economic system. At last the quantitative anddescriptive problem about estimating economic impact of emerging technologies wassolved. The empirical analysis results showed that currently the economic impact ofemerging technologies in communication transmission filed is larger than aerospace,and smaller than biomedical. Through the empirical research on relevant areas ofemerging technologies, the proposed evaluation framework based on the analysis ofseismic was better verified. Finally, the results of this research provide policyconsideration for the rational allocation of the national special fund and effectivelayout of the new industry.