Empirical Research On Speculation Activity In Real Estate Market

Real estate is an integral part of human activities since ancient times. As the humanactivities developing, real estate functions are also developing, the nature of real estateattribution changes from a kind of consumer goods to an investment tool. This articlestudies the change of real estate attribution and speculate activities in real estate throughthe goods attribution and financial attribution of real estate, and then measure thespeculation with a mathematical model, and finally calculate the speculation inChongqing real estate market through empirical test and find out the causes to the result.The research uses Levin and Wright’s real estate market speculation model, theybroke down real estate price into two parts, one part is the price when the capital gain iszero which determined by the use value of real estate, the other part is the price of thepresent value of investment income in the future as an investment tool which isdetermined by the real estate finance property. Then a linear regression equation isestablished by the residents’ disposable income, short-term loan interest rates and houseprices growth rate of real estate. Finally, it uses real estate market history data ofChongqing city to calculate the speculative degree of real estate market of Chongqingcity through the linear model. The real estate market speculation degree of Chongqingcity is much smaller than the speculative degrees cordon, the speculation did not causethe overheated situation in real estate market.