The Risk Zoning And Rate-making Of Leshan Rape Area Yield Insurance

Farmers usually face three main risks:production risk, price risk and quality risk, agricultural insurance is an important way to deal with all these risks.More and more areas developped agricultural insurance to diversify agricultural risks and protect a stable income for farmers.Sichuan Province was a national agricultural insurance pilot since 2007.Since then,the development speed and the scale of Sichuan’s agricultural insurance was amazing,but the insurance rate at this moment is unreasonable for the rate in a region or even province is same.It is likely to cause adverse selection and moral hazard.In this paper, we take Leshan’s rape area yield insurance as an example to study the method of risking zoning and rate-making to provide the basis for stable development.The main research content and main points are as follows:Charpter one:Introduction.Clarifying the background of this study, meaning and ideas.Analyzing domestic and foreign research results.Charprter two:Introduce the development of agricultural insurance in China and Sichuan to analyz problem.Chronological review of the development of agricultural insurance:experience of phase,state-run agricultural insurance pilot phase, commercial stage of development of agricultural insurance, agricultural insurance business to stop shrinking phase and stage of development of agricultural insurance policy.Based on the analysis of the development situation of agricultural insurance and the main issues raised in Sichuan, we take the lack of reasearch on agricultual insurance management techniques as the key issue to affected the development of agricultural insurance.Charpter three:Sichuan Leshan major risk on rape production and risk assessment.Based on the introduction of Leshan City, we focus on the rape production risks of natural disasters, pests and diseases, and use the non-parametric kernel density estimate of the information in the diffusion model which is suitable fo small sample estamation to estimate the risk under multiple disasters.According to Leshan’s 2000-2008 year districts (counties) the yield per unit area data for estimating the yield loss rate’probability of 21 cases.Charpter four:Leshan rapeseed area yield insurance risk zoning.Based on the rapeseed production data, select the yield coefficient of variation, disaster loss rate of over 15% and 30% of the probability,efficiency index for crop production and crop production scale index as the clustering index,use hierarchical cluster to divide the Leshan City into three risk zones:City District, Shawan District, Wutongqiao, Jiajiang County and Emei City are at a lower risk area;Qianwei, Jinyan County and Muchuan are at a moderate risk areas;Ebian Mabian Yi Autonomous County and Yi Autonomous County are at a high risk area.Charpter five:Ratemaking of Leshan rape area yield insurance.Based on the risk zoning,we start from the random fluctuations from the relative yields (RSV) angles,using appropriate statistical analysis software to find the the best fitting model——Jonhson SB distribution, then choose the right wavethe security level to calculate the ratesThere are two main innovations of this paper:(1) considering the impact of rapeseed production in climatic conditions, agricultural disasters, topography, scale of production on the basis of such factors, the use of rapeseed production data to construct a reasonable clustering index system, and then use hierarchical cluster analysis of rape Leshan City, the county is divided into three risk areas production risks were low risk areas, medium risk areas and higher risk areas; (2)Based on the risk zoning, the use of each risk area easyfit5.0 software to find the best fitting model of yield fluctuations, according to the yield volatility risk areas to choose the appropriate level of protection to calculate the net rates.