Study On Production Risk And Policy Agricultural Insurance In Rapeseed Of Hubei Province

Hubei province is located at middle reach of the Yangtze. Within the boundaries of Hubei, Hubei possesses abundant rivers and lakes, and has a varied topography. Favourable conditions are easy to rapeseed planting. Rapeseed's output ranks first in china, ranks sixth in the world. But rapeseed planting is facing many risks in Hubei. Such as weather is changeable, cold and warm air mass change frequently. Fatal low temperature, flood, arid, and tornado often appeared, etc..Rapeseed is a very important technical crop in winter. So farmer can work in the winter which is the usual resting season. On the one hand, planting rapeseed can increase income of farmers. On the other hand, it does not cause a drop in output of food crop.We should find a balance between the importance of rapeseed and risks of planting rapeseed. Crop insurance which can resist risks is the key. The crop insurance research has significance on theory and practice.The study is divided into 6 parts:Part 1 introduces background, object, meaning about this study. The part explains that crop insurance is both important and urgent, and summarizes current condition of study, home and abroad.Part 2 analyzes planting condition, and makes qualitative analysis for planting rapeseed risks in Hubei.Part 3 chooses certain indexes to use in the risk zoning method. The indexes include probability of crop loss, per unit area yield fluctuation coefficient, specialization indexes etc., which can properly describe the natural risk and social risk of rapeseed planting in Hubei. Then according to the actual situation, we resort to hierarchical clustering method to conduct risk zoning of rapeseed planting within 78 counties. The planting regions are graded 4 zones according to risks of planting rapeseed in Hubei. Finally we point to some realistic value according to the former analysis.Part 4 uses 5 yield distributions, which include 4 parametric methods and a non-parametric method, to calculate pure premium rates of 78 counties in Hubei. The result of this study demonstrates that pure premium rates present evident distinguish under alternative yield distributions. Finally, this study evaluates fitting effects of 5 yield distributions through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.Part 5 uses historical simulation method to analyze feasibility of financial support form government. And it analyzes influence of financial support to government and farmer.Part 6 offers some suggestions for development of rapeseed insurance in Hubei according to the former analysis. The suggestions include that increasing peasant income, increasing subsidy from government to crop insurance, making great innovation in system and technique, developing agricultural reinsurance etc.