| Agricultural insurance as an effective mechanism for dispersing agricultural risk and loss,it is not only an important agricultural security system,and has become one of important non-price agricultural protection tools in the world.Since the 16th national congress,the CPC central committee and the state council take great importance to the development of the Policy-oriented agricultural insurance,and the no.1 files put forward clear requirements to the development of the agricultural insurance during 2004-2015.At the end of 2012,in view of the need of healthy development of the sugarcane industry,the central government took the sugarcane insurance into national policy coverage,and it has brought new opportunities for the development of sugarcane insurance.However,the current sugarcane insurance in Guangxi is the personal yield insurance,it only compensate for the sugarcane planting direct materialized cost,so the personal yield insurance also be called disasters compensatory insurance or cost compensatory insurance.Its security level is low,and implement unified rate within the range of Guangxi,so the current insurance rate did not reflect the risk differences of the different areas,thus it is easy to induce the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard.In view of these,this article put forward to develop sugarcane area yield insurance,the insurance has better ability to deal with systemic risk,it conform to the requirements of risk consistency,so this insurance can control the adverse selection and moral hazard problem effectively.Through long-term test in America,Canada and India,all these countries approved this kind of insurance,because the compensation standards of this insurance are objective and transparent,the scope of insurance liability is wide,and the process of verify the crop loss and handle the insurance claims is simple and clear.In addition,the data of this insurance can be easily collected.This insurance according the crop's history yield of particular area to design the insurance ensure yields and insurance rate,as long as the crop's actual yields less than the ensure yields of the particular area,the insurance company must pay compensates to all the farmers,regardless of whether individual farmer really affected by disasters;on the other hand,if the crop yield of the particular area not reached the the compensate point,then all the farmers cannot get compensation,while some farmers may be affected by disasters and the crop yield lost.To improve the accuracy of the sugarcane area yield insurance rate,and make the rate can reflect the risk situation within a smaller area,this article uses the sugarcane yield data of "county" regional,research the problems of insurance rate calculating,risk assessment,risk zoning,insurance scheme designing and the fiscal subsidies,etc.The results of this research can provide decision-making basis for the farmers buying sugarcane insurance,insurance companies business sugarcane insurance,government providing subsidies to sugarcane insurance and layout sugarcane production in Guangxi The main content and conclusion of this paper are as follows:First,identifies the risks of sugarcane production in Guangxi.Emphatically analyzed the impact of these disasters risk on sugarcane growth,and briefly analyzed the time and space distribution,and the intensity and scope of these disasters,etc.Calculate correlation between the main meteorological disasters and sugarcane yield,the results showed:the correlation between fierce freeze-up and sugarcane yield is the largest,the followings are wind hail,drought and waterlog.Second,divides the risk zoning of Guangxi sugarcane yield basised the data of"county" region.This paper use quadratic curve fitting the sugarcane theoretical yield,and according to the trend of adjustment formula to deal with the trend of the sugarcane theoretical yield,and then use parameter and nonparametric method to determine the distribution of sugarcane yield risk.The results show that the higher disaster losses areas of sugarcane are mainly distributed in northwest and much of northern region in Guangxi,the lower loss risk areas are mainly concentrated in Guangxi southwest.Third,makes risk division of sugarcane area yield insurance.Selecting12 indicators that are:"yield reduction rate","yield coefficient of variation","the probability of disaster loss rate more than a certain threshold","specialization index","efficiency index","the security area index" and "average affected area index"and so on,and use the method of cluster analysis to make risk division,and the last we divide the sugarcane production area into high,medium and low risk grade areas.Fourth,calculated the pure insurance premium rate of Guangxi sugarcane area yield insurance.This paper use four methods to calculate the pure premium rates in 80%,90%and 100%security level:APH method,experience rating method,parametric method and nonparametric method,and according to the results of the risk regionalization to adjust the pure rate.The results as follows:the rate of of high risk area is 3.9481%,the rate of medium risk area is 3.2323%,the rate of low risk area is 2.9824%.If Guangxi implement unified rate,that is 3.3876%.Fifth,discussing scheme design of sugarcane area yield insurance from five aspects,which are selection of insured area,determination of compensation standards,indemnity payout rules,determination of the range of franchise clause and coverage level and rate.Sixth,put forward the subsidies plan of sugarcane yield insurance,and on the basis of premium rate,this paper estimate the roughly size of fiscal subsidies,the sources of funding,the allocation proportion between the governments and the subsidies methods.Finally,summarize the research content,and put forward several suggestions from these aspects to develop sugarcane area yield insurance,which are product design,data collection,government support,sales channels and claims service level. |
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