An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Rmb Exchange Rate Fluctuation On Hubei Province's Import And Export Trade

In the context of global economic integration and our economy's growing economy,the exchange rate has become one of the focuses in the internationa-l economy.RMB has played an irreplaceable role in international economic an d trade and investment activities.Exchange rate as a measure of the basis of i-mport and export trade,its changes for countries and regions have an importa-nt impact on import and export trade.Since the implementation of exchange r-eform in China in 2005,the floating exchange rate system has caused the exc-hange rate of the RMB exchange rate increasing,the RMB is facing tremendo-us pressure on value-added.Hubei Province,as an important province to lead the rise of central China,in recent years,foreign trade continues to develop,a few days ago Hubei Province at the same time facing the "Yangtze River Economic Development","along the way","innovation-driven development" and ot--her national strategic overlay,Hubei inland free trade experiment It is of grea-t significance to study the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the import and export trade of Hubei Province,and it is of great significance to study the influence of RMB exchange rate change on Hubei import and export trade.Based on the theory of trade balance theory and elasticity analysis,this pa-per adopts the intuitive analysis and the empirical analysis,selects the data from 1994 to 2015,establishes the actual effective exchange rate of the people,the import and export trade volume of Hubei Province,the actual income in H-ubei province and abroad,The actual investment in Hubei Province,Hubei P-rovince,trade dependence,including trade balance model.First,the AR-GARC-H model is used to measure the volatility of the real effective exchange rate of RMB,and the ADF unit root test is carried out for all the data.Using the Johansen cointegration test to study the long-term relationship,a vector autor-egressive model was established to study the short-term relationship by Gra n-ger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition.The results s h-ow that the Marshall-Lerner condition in Hubei Province is established.In th e long run,the appreciation of the RMB can effectively promote the import of Hubei Province.The increase of RMB volatility has negative influence on the import and export of Hubei Province.In the short term,The impact of chang es on exports is greater than imports.Based on the empirical results,in the co ntext of the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Zone and the develop ment of the Free Trade Zone in Hubei Province,the relevant policies were put forward from the aspects of how to avoid the risk of exchange rate volatility,expand foreign investment and enhance trade dependence.