Research On The Diffusion Of SNS Services Based On Bass Model

With the rapid development of mobile Internet nowadays, people enjoy a variety of needs about services. At the same time, communication among them keeps growing. SNS services, which meet the need of communication, has brought great changes in people’s life and communication ways, thus create tremendous business opportunities for related enterprises. The development of SNS services could bring stable user base and encourage user aggregation, this is exactly the source of all company’s economic efficiency. Especially for telecommunication operators, the churn and loss of users will leave a huge negative impact. Thus, study the diffusion mechanism of SNS services and to accurately predict certain future trends has both theoretical and practical significance.The main purpose of this thesis is to build a diffusion model for SNS services base on basic BASS model, apply in empirical analysis to predict the development trends of SNS services in China, then propose key strategies and recommendations about how to improve SNS service. The paper is organized as follows.First, this thesis reviewed the researches on innovation diffusion models, discussed the application of innovation diffusion models in various fields, then further reviewed researches about basic BASS models and discussed the application of extended BASS models.Second, this thesis summarized the development status of SNS services in China and abroad,Main SNS service types and its importance. Based on the innovation diffusion theory, the thesis discussed the diffusion mechanism of SNS services, gave a definition about the diffusion of SNS services and identified its influencing factors. In addition, based on the modeling concept of BASS model, we built a predicting model for the diffusion of SNS services according to factors that affect the diffusion process, including market potential, innovation coefficients and imitation coefficients.Finally, through empirical analysis, this thesis verified the applicability and superiority of the above diffusion model for SNS services (which is based on Bass model), and predicted the development trends of SNS services in China, then proposed development strategies and advices about future SNS services.