The Study Of Electricity Consumption Forecast Based On Industry Chain

With the reform of the electricity market, the power industry has been development rapidly, but the demand of electricity consumption has become increasingly prominent. The power industry is the basis sector of industrial economy, and also is the lifeblood of the national economic development. To make sure the coordinated development of power industry and national economy, we should keep balance between electricity supply and demand. So, it is of great significance to research the development of electricity consumption market. In this paper, we build electricity market consumption forecasting model based on the power industry chain, and predict the electricity market consumption. It provides for the power industry a scientific and theoretical basis to develop the planning.In the economic activities, there is a wide range, complex and close contact between the various industries. According to contact, we analyze the upstream and downstream relationships of the electricity industry in the macroeconomic system, combined with the specific circumstances of the electricity market consumption in Chongqing. we take into account three levels of indicators, Chongqing, China and the International, initially select49indicators to establish alternative indicators library. And then select the alternative indicators by using the method of co-integration theory and gray correlation analysis. Firstly, calculate the correlation among each indicator and electricity consumption with the gray relational analysis, and thus to identify the indicators which has a larger impact on electricity consumption. Secondly, analyze whether there is a long-term stable relationship among the indicators and the electricity consumption with co-integration theory. Finally, set up9indicators system, and laid the foundation for the further modeling.Based on the final indicators, we establish the Vector Auto Regressive model based on econometric. Test the model and re-estimated, having the eventual establishment of a predictive model of electricity consumption based on the upstream and downstream product and the external environment of the electricity industry chain, and the model has passed the test. Finally, we establish the combination forecasting model based on two models, and forecast the consumption of electricity market development trend.Constructed on the basis of the above studies, we establish a consumption model of electricity market based on the industrial chain, and predict in advance of the electricity market consumption trends. To analyze the electricity consumption from the perspective of the electricity industry chain, to some extent, it enrich the content of electricity consumption forecasting, as well as provide valuable suggestions for power enterprises and relevant departments to planning and constructing power grid.