The Empiircal Research For The Conduction Mechanism Between Economic Growth And Carbon Emission In China

Today, the greenhouse effect caused by global warming has already become the focusof world attention. China had announced a new emission reduction targets before theCopenhagen climate conference. As we all know, China is in the golden era of rapideconomic growth, which can not be separated from the use of energy.And the fact isthat the use of fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide. Therefore, Chinese Goverment isfacing an urgent problem, whether the formulation of the carbon emissions targetswill affect the economic growth. In order to clarify this problem, we must explicitlyknow the Conduction Mechanism between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissionin China.This paper utilize the Cointegration test,the error correction model (ECM) andvector autoregressive model (VAR) to empirical study the transmission mechanismbetween economic growth and carbon emissions by Eviews6.0software.And theconclusions are as follows:Economic growth itself and carbon emissions does not exist cointegrationrelationship. With its growth structure,the economic growth and carbon emissionsconstitute a cointegration relationship; the long-term carbon emissions have no directimpact on economic growth. On the contrary, the balance growth of economic, inwhich the industrial structure is stable, will lead to the increase of carbon dioxideemissions;In short term, the rate of economic growth affects the rate of carbondioxide emissions.But the impact depends on the industrial structure:if the industrialstructure is just in the short-term equilibrium position, the rate of economic growthhas a positive impact to the rate of carbon dioxide emissions. But in most cases theindustrial structure is not stable in short term, and the impact is not clear; the structural shocks of the industrial output growth rate will produce a negative impacton the rate of carbon dioxide emissions in3-4years,and the structural shocks ofagricultural output growth rate will produce a positive impact on the rate of carbondioxide emissions in3-4years. But no matter what kind of structural shocks, theentire system needs to undergo a very long time to recover to equilibrium, and theformer needs longer time; compared to the structural impact of the industrial outputgrowth rate, the structural shocks of agricultural output growth rate have a moreimportant effect on the rate of carbon dioxide emissions.