The Research On The Bank Credit And The Real Estate Price Fluctuations Based On VAR Model In Guangdong Province

After years of development, whether the real estate market is healthy and stable development, be directly related to the long-term development of the national economy. The real estate industry belongs to capital intensive industries, its development needs the bank credit, non-banking financial institutions, developers self-raised funds and other kinds of capital channel.At the same time, since our country let go of individual housing mortgages loan later, in order to support and promote the real estate industry, commercial Banks transforms the single model that only supplys to the real estate enterprise issue development loan into both to the support of the real estate development, but also to support housing consumption. Tthus, the bank credit funds will become the main channel of the real estate capital source. It indirectly effects on real estate prices and the entire national economy, and the effect of the real estate boom with rapid surge in the national economy and the increase of the proportion of the increasingly strengthened. In recent years, real estate prices rising in guangdong province, real estate prices start turning into a bubble, the bank credit risk and financial risk expands unceasingly. In this case, theoretical analysis and empirical research between the real estate prices and bank credit, to prevent a real estate bubble and real estate credit risk, has an important theoretical and realistic significance.The paper Firstly expounds the background and meaning of writing, and understanding for the relationship between the bank credit and the real estate prices at home and abroad, the basic framework of the article and so on; In the second,it analysis of the relationship from the view of the theories in twixt, and detailed analysis how the supply and demand principle influences the real estate prices, real estate prices and credit transmission mechanism etc; Third, the article dopts the methods in the empirical research, the principle of the VAR model and empirical steps; Fourth,it expounds the bank credit and the real estate market development presently situation in guangdong province; Fifth, using the correlation analysis and VAR model analysis, making how the real estate price fluctuations bank credit empirical analysis of the relationship in guangdong province, describeing the relationship from the view of positivism in twixt; Sixth, using the correlation analysis and VAR model to GDP in the pearl river delta of guangdong province the top four in the city of guangzhou, shenzhen, foshan, dongguan bank credit and the real estate price fluctuation relationship of empirical analysis, and compared the similarities and differences in the four cities.This paper is in the real estate industry and bank credit status on the basis of qualitative analysis, combined with the VAR model for quantitative analysis in Guangdong Province, research the bank credit and the real estate fluctuations in the price of the interactive relationship, the empirical analysis shows that:the real estate prices and the bank credit has a long-term equilibrium relationship, promote each other closely relationship; The bank credit risk and the real estate prices fluctuations have a positive correlation;the bank credit in the short term to the real estate price direct effect is relatively limited, mainly through the long-term effects on the real estate prices; Rising house prices can be quickly attract credit funds, and the credit funds that pour into the market will not rapidly improve the real estate prices. Also,some key cities of the pearl river delta key,include guangzhou, foshan, dongguan the real estate prices and the bank credit have a long-term equilibrium each other, the real estate prices and the bank credit exist ne-way causality between guangzhou and dongguan, the real estate prices’s the ups and downs will directly influence the wide and tight of the bank credit.Shenzhen and foshan, the real estate prices and the bank credit is not exist causality each other.and finally from the real estate industry structure adjustment, the real estate enterprises to broaden the financing channels, the real estate credit structure adjustment, the real estate credit monitoring efforts four aspects puts forward relevant policy Suggestions.