Study On The Rationality Of Urban Commercial Housing Price Changes

In recent years, real estate regulations and commercial housing price seem to have formed a cycle of the loop game. The reasons of commercial housing price changes and whether it is reasonable have become the most controversial issues.The paper follows the real estate macroeconomic analysis path, and theoretically analyzes the factors of impacting China’s city commercial housing price changes, using the indication of the theoretical price method and the improved index method to judge the rationality of the commercial housing price changes in some city. The paper selects Hangzhou as the empirical study area, analyzing the law of commercial housing price changes during the’Eleventh Five-Year Plan’, objectively evaluating rationality of changes and finding out its reasons and proposing suggestions accordingly. The main conclusions of this paper are:1、The direction and extent of urban commercial housing price changes is the result of three forces of market behavior, government behavior and the social and psychological behavior.2、Study finds that:During’the Eleventh Five-Year Plan’period, the commercial housing market in Hangzhou with a certain degree of overheating investment. The improvement of the land supply growth had a certain effect on inhibiting the Hangzhou commercial housing prices rising too fast. There is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the commercial housing price of Hangzhou, the level of economic development, per capita disposable income, and the interest rate. Further depicting the long-term trend of commercial housing price of Hangzhou.3、The empirical results show that:in2006, the level and change in Hangzhou commercial housing price was relatively reasonable; However, from2007, according to the indicators, the level and changes of commercial housing price showed the characteristics of unreasonable. According to the theoretical price method, specific judgments in Hangzhou commercial housing prices rising too fast in August2007to August2008and September2009to September2010. The mainly reason is due to unreasonable expectations caused by speculative demand continued to increase and land price continued to rise and so on. In addition, the international financial crisis of2008led to the end of2008to early2009, the actual value of the commercial housing price index slightly lower than the theoretical’equilibrium value’. Starting from the October2010, Hangzhou commercial housing price changes may have to return to the long-term trends which adapts to the various economic factors. On one hand, the result shows that the effect of control policies previews and on the other hand, it also means that the commercial housing market of Hangzhou starts to enter the stable stage of development. But the price level remains too high according to the ratio of housing price and income, sales and leasing.